- the Al Husseir1, with an estimated range of 630 km, and
"possibly" the Al Abbas, with an estimated range of 900 km.
-
(U) The intelligence community also assessed that Iraq was working to
develop new ballistic missiles with a range of 750-3000 km, which would be
greater than its presumed "Scud-type force", but available
intelligence indicated that Iraq was still at the early stages of
development on this project President’s Speech in Cincinnati (October
7, 2002)
- (U) In the President’s speech on Iraq in Cincinnati, he stated
that "Iraq possesses ballistic missiles with a likely range of
hundreds of miles. . .We’ve also discovered through intelligence that
Iraq has a growing fleet of manned and unmanned aerial vehicles that could
be used to disperse chemical or biological weapons across broad areas. We’re
concerned that Iraq is exploring ways of using these UAVs for missions
targeting the United States."H2
- (U) As noted above, the IC assessed
at that time that Iraq had a small force of pre-Gulf War Scud-variant
missiles, with a likely range of 630-900 kilometers, or roughly 400-560
miles. The IC also assessed that Iraq was in the final stages of
development of new short-range ballistic missiles, but estimated that the
range of these missiles was 150-300 km, or under 200 miles. These
judgments were contained in several assessments, including the October 1,
2002 NIE.m
- (U) The October 2002 NIE stated that Iraq was developing and
flight-testing small-to-medium sized UAVs, and had a UAV development
program that was "probably intended to deliver biological warfare
agent". The majority of the IC also believed that at least one of
these UAVs was close to being ready for operational use. The intelligence
branch of the US Air Force disagreed with this part of the analysis of the
UAV program, however. Air Force intelligence noted in the NIE that "CBW
[chemical
and biological weapons] delivery is an inherent capability" of UAVs,
but judged that "the small size of Iraq’s new UAV strongly suggests
a primary role of reconnaissance."H4 110 National Intelligence
Estimate, Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat
Through 2015, December 2001; DIA, Iraq Missile Proliferation Activity, March
1, 2002; CIA, Iraq: Expanding WMD Capabilities Pose Growing Threat, August
2002; Prepared Statement of Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet
Before the Senate Armed Services Committee and the Senate Select Committee
on Intelligence, September 17, 2002; DIA, Military Threats to Israel,
December 2002. U1 National Intelligence Estimate, Iraq ’s Continuing
Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction, October 2002. H2 White House
Transcript, President Bush Outlines Iraqi Threat, October 7, 2002. U3
National Intelligence Estimate, Foreign Missile Developments and the
Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015, December 2001; DIA, Iraq Missile
Proliferation Activity, March 1, 2002; CIA, Iraq: Expanding WMD
Capabilities Pose Growing Threat, August 2002; Prepared Statement of
Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet Before the Senate Armed
Services Committee and the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence,
September 17, 2002; DIA, Military Threats to Israel, December 2002; and
National Intelligence Estimate, Iraq ’s Continuing Programs for Weapons
of Mass Destruction, October 2002. Committee staff were also permitted to
view a one-page summary of the NIE, which was prepared for the President.
This one-page summary included two sentences on delivery systems, which
stated "Baghdad has some SRBMs that exceed UN range limits of 150 km.
It has UAVs, probably fgrrcéegvery of biological weapons and less likely
for chemical weapons agents? 1 . 53
| AIPAC, Rosen Weissman Timeline excerpt .... go
to page 4 of Timeline |
- Aug 27, 2004 the
FBI raided (first of two raids) the office of AIPAC director
Steve Rosen, copied his hard drive.
- Aug 27, 2004 CBS Investigator
said they want AIPAC information on contacts between Franklin,
Feith and Wolfowitz. An Israeli spokesperson denied
everything. CBS
- Wolfowitz and Feith
- Dan Rather, CBS issue, check dates? smokescreen?
Rathergate.
- National
Review by Michael Ledeen on
"my pal' Larry Franklin, ho hum. Aug 31 04
- August 29, 2004 United
Jersalem "Allegations of Israel spying Usually
go away" see indictment
- August 29, 2004"..... Feith has
been a target of criticism from Democrats who claim that two
offices in his branch -- the Office of Special Plans, headed by
Luti, and the Counterterrorism Evaluation Group -- sought to
manipulate intelligence to improve the Bush administration's
case for war against Iraq. House and Senate intelligence
committee investigators found no evidence for allegations that
the Pentagon offices tried to bypass the CIA or had a major
impact on the prewar debate. But in the Senate panel's report on
prewar intelligence" Washington
Post, file
- Sept 2004, Franklin
probe went dark?
- Sept 1, 2004 "FBI
SEIZES COMPUTER FROM AIPAC OFFICES
By Janine Zacharia The Jerusalem Post September 1, 2004 NEW YORK
— FBI agents on Friday copied the computer hard drive of a
senior staffer at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee
who has been questioned in relation to the case of a Pentagon
official suspected of turning over a classified document either
directly to Israel, or via the pro-Israel lobby group".
Shalom
Center
- Sept 1, 2004 article search
terms: Office of Special Plans, David Wurmser (see Cheney), 'A
Clean Break' Netanyahu, Likud, Road Map, Counterpunch
- Larry Franklin, Defense Intelligence Agency,
Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Douglas Feith, reports to
William Luti
- Sept 6, 2004,
MSNBC
story: "In the Pentagon, a suspected spy allegedly passes
secrets about Iran to Israel". Larry Franklin turns
up while FBI monitoring lunch conversation. Was there an
Abu Ghraib smokescreen story? Newsweek interviews
Ledeen on the story and he says Franklin charges are
"nonsensical". and Newsweek tries to spin
Franklin as a loner in the case and supports view that Israel no
longer spies on U.S. Linked Franklin to Luti, Gingrich,
Feith and Likud. and also Washington
Monthly Franklin, Rhode were involved in contacts with
Manucher Ghorbanifar and other Iranian exiles ....all in waring
administration camps on 'regime change' in Iran versus a more
cautious approach. Ledeen / Iran Sep
01 Sep 03, Sep
04 Latest
Entries
|
page 53
- _
- (U) The NIE also described an older UAV program that used larger
aircraft. Analysts assessed that this program involved "as many as
ten L-29 1960s vintage Czech-built trainers" which had been converted
into UAVs as of 2000, and noted that these planes’ operational status
was unknown. The NIE noted that the US Air Force assessed that "no
flyable L-29 airframes remain", and included a footnote pointing out
that "the Military Intelligence Community assesses that the role of
the L-29 UAV-modified aircraft is largely historical and that
concentrating on it distracts from other more viable delivery mechanisms
for CBW".ll5
- (U) The NIE went on to state that Iraq had "at
least one small UAV that could be employed eovertly against the
continental United States", and that this UAV "might be
available for operational use within months". The NIE also described
an incident in which an Iraqi procurement network "attempted to
procure commercially available route planning software and an associated
topographic database that [would] provide coverage of the ‘50
states"’. The NIE concluded that this information suggested that
"Iraq is investigating the use of these UAVs for missions targeting
the United States".u6
- (U) Intelligence assessments regarding UAVs
shifted after the October 2002 NIE. A subsequent NIE, Nontraditional
Threats to the US Homeland Through 2007, published in January 2003, did
not describe Iraq’s UAV program as "probably intended" for
biological weapons delivery, and instead stated that "Iraq may be
modifying UAVs" for CBW delivery. This NIE also noted that Iraqi UAVs
could reach the United States, if they were transported (in some
unspecified manner) "to within a few hundred kilometers."m
- (U)
The January 2003 NIE also discussed Iraqi attempts to procure mapping
software, but stated only that this software "could support
programming of a UAV autopilot for operation in the United States."H8
-
(U) The Air Force continued to dissent hom even these less conclusive
judgments. Joined by the DIA and the Army intelligence branch, the Air
Force stated that, while most UAVs were capable of being used to deliver
biological weapons, evidence that Iraqis were modifying UAVs for this
purpose was "unconfirmed, and is not sufficiently compelling to
indicate that the Iraqis have done so." These services further noted
that they believed that "the purpose of the Iraqi request for route
planning software and topographic database was to acquire a generic
mapping capability — a goal that is not necessarily indicative of an
intent to target the U.S. Homeland."1 9
- (U) The President did not
mention Iraqi missiles or UAVs in the 2003 State of the Union Address.12°
*15 md. “‘ mid. t lljlbagional Intelligence Estimate, Nontraditional
Threats t0 the US Homeland, January 2003. 1 . “° mid. 120 White House
Transcript, President Delivers "State of the Union", January 28,
2003.
page 54
- Secretary of State ’s Address to the UN Security Council (February 5,
2003)
- (U) The Secretary of State made several mentions of prohibited
missiles and UAV capabilities in his February 2003 address to the UN
Security Council. He asserted that "Iraq had a program to modify
aerial fuel tanks for Mirage jets", and that "In 1995, an Iraqi
military officer, Mujahid Saleh Abdul Latif, told inspectors that Iraq
intended the spray tanks to be mounted onto a MiG- 21 that had been
converted into an unmanned aerial vehicle, or UAV. UAVs outfitted with
spray tanks constitute an ideal method for launching a terrorist attack
using biological weapons."l2
- (U) Both of these statements were
substantiated by intelligence assessments, however both referred to
pre-Gulf War programs - The Secretary made two central assertions
regarding prohibited missiles, first stating that "numerous
intelligence reports over the past decade from sources inside Iraq
indicate that Saddam Hussein retains a covert force of up to a few dozen
Scud-variant ballistic missiles. These are missiles with a range of 650 to
900 kilometers."m This assertion was included in the earlier NIE and
a number of other intelligence reports. However, the NIE did not r ort any
direct evidence of this Scud-variant force and stated that this assessment
was basedch _”" His other key assertion regarding missiles was that
"Ira has no arms that are intended to produce ballistic
missiles that fly 1,000 kilometers. One program is pursuing a liquid fuel
missile that would be able to fly more than 1,200 kilometers."125
These programs were also referenced in the earlier NIE, which noted that
they were in an earlier stage of development than shorter-range missile
pro grams.126
- (U) Regarding UAVs, the Secretary made four major
statements, including "Iraq has been working on a variety of UAVs for
over a decade."m Intelligence assessments had indicated the existence
of the pre-Gulf War MiG UAV program, as well as the L-29 program mentioned
in the NIE. Reporting on Iraq’s smaller UAV program was more recent, and
appears to have begun in 2001. The Committee is also aware of intelligence
provided directly to the Secretary by the CIA which also substantiated
this statement.128 m White House Transcript, US. Secretary of State Colin
Powell Addresses the UN Security Council, February 5, 2003. m DIA, Iraq
’s Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Weapons and Missile Programs:
Progress, Prospects, and Potential Vulnerabilities (DI-156, 9-27-00) May
2000. 123 White House Transcript, US. Secretary of State Colin Powell
Addresses the UN Security Council, February 5, 2003. 124 National
Intelligence Estimate, Iraq ’s Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass
Destruction, October 2002. 125 White House Transcript, US. Secretary of
State Colin Powell Addresses the UN Security Council, February 5, 2003.
126 National Intelligence Estimate, Iraq ’s Continuing Programs for
Weapons of Mass Destruction, October 2002. 127 White House Transcript, US.
Secretary of State Colin Powell Addresses the UN Security Council,
February 5, 2003. 128 DIA, Iraq ’s Nuclear, Biological and Chemical
Weapons and Missile Programs: Progress, Prospects, and Potential
Vulnerabilities (DI-156, 9-27-00) May 2000; National Intelligence
Estimate, Iraq ’s Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction,
October 2002; Senior Executive Intelligence Brief, Iraq: Shopping for UA V
Equipment, September 14, 2001. _ 55
page 55
- (U`) The Secretary went on to say that "we detected one of Iraq’s
newest UAVs in a test flight that went 500 kilometers nonstop on autopilot
in the racetrack pattern depicted here."129 The January 2003 NIE
described this flight data, and stated that the UAVs autonomous flight
range was at least 500 kilometers.]3°
- (U`) The Secretary drew a
connection between the apparent UAV program and biological weapons,
stating that "There is ample evidence that Iraq has dedicated much
effort to developing and testing spray devices that could be adapted for
UAVs." Finally, he argued that "Iraq could use these small UAVs,
which have a wingspan of only a few meters, to deliver biological agents
to its neighbors, or if transported, to other countries, including the
United States."13l
- (U) Iraq’s pre-Gulf War program to fit Mirage
jets with aerosol spray tanks was mentioned in numerous intelligence
assessments, as well as Iraqi declarations to the UN.132 As noted above,
the January 2003 NIE said that Iraq "may be modifying UAVs to deliver
CBW agents, according to numerous sources." The Air Force/Army/DIA
dissent to this NIE agreed that biological weapons delivery is an inherent
capability of most UAVs," but concluded that "a reconnaissance
mission for the UAV program is more likely."133
- (U) The January 2003
NIE stated that "UAVs could strike the homeland if transported to
within a few hundred kilometers." It noted that "Iraq has at
least one small UAV" with a range of "at least 500 krn," or
roughly 300 miles.134 Additional Statements • "And let there be no
doubt about it, his regime has dozens of ballistic missiles and is working
to extend their range in violation of U.N. restriction." - Secretary
of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Testimony before the House Armed Services
Committee, September 18, 2002 • "His regime is pursuing pilotless
aircraft as a means of delivering chemical and biological weapons." -
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Testimony before the House Armed
Services Committee, September 18, 2002 129 White House Transcript, US.
Secretary of State Colin Powell Addresses the UN Security Council,
February 5, 2003. 130 National Intelligence Estimate, Nontraditional
Tltreats to the US Homeland, January 2003. 131 White House Transcript,
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell Addresses the U.N Security Council,
February 5, 2003. 132 CIA, Iraq: Iraq’s Biological Warfare Program: Well
Positioned for the Future, April 14, 1997; CIA, Iraq’s L-29: A
Biological and Chemical Warfare Challenge to US Forces, July 12, 2001; DIA,
Iraq’s Weapons of Mass Destruction and Theater Ballistic Missile
Programs: Post September lim, January 1, 2002; DIA, Iraq: Biological
Warfare Program Handbook, August 2002; National Intelligence Estimate,
Iraq ’s Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction, October
2002. 133 National Intelligence Estimate, Nontraditional Threats to the
US Homeland, January 2003. 13* rpm. _ 56
page 56
- • "The Iraqi regime has acquired and tested the means to deliver
weapons of mass destruction. All the world has now seen the footage of an
Iraqi Mirage aircraft with a fuel tank modified to spray biological agents
over wide areas. Iraq has developed spray devices that could be used on
unmanned aerial vehicles with ranges far beyond what is permitted by the
Security Council. A UAV launched from a vessel off the American coast
could reach hundreds of miles inland." — President George W Bush,
Statement in the Roosevelt Room, February 6, 2003
- (U) The above statements
are all consistent with the five major policy speeches analyzed. The
statement below differs from these speeches. • The Iraqi regime
possesses biological and chemical weapons, is rebuilding the facilities to
make more, and according to the British government, [Iraq] could launch a
biological or chemical attack in as little as forty-five minutes after the
order is given." — President George W Bush, Radio Address,
September 28, 2002 - On September 28, 2002, the President cited the
British government as the source of a statement that the Iraqi government
was capable of launching chemical or biological attacks with forty-five
minutes of warning. A report from _ that same month had cited an
intelligence source who said that the Iraqi government possessed chemical
and biological munitions that could be deployed (apparently against
neighboring countries) with a forty-five minute response time. Conclusions
-
(U) Conclusion 7: Statements in the major speeches and additional
statements analyzed regarding Iraqi ballistic missiles were generally
substantiated by available intelligence. The intelligence community was
consistent in its judgments that the Iraqi military possessed a small
number of Scud-type missiles left over from the Gulf War era (although the
October 2002 NIE noted that these judgments were based on accounting gaps
rather than direct evidence), and that Iraq was developing short-range
missiles whose range exceeded the range permitted under UN sanctions by as
much as 150 km, or 93 miles. The corrnnunity also judged that Iraq was
pursuing the capability to build longer-range missiles, but assessed that
this project was still at the early stages of development.
- (U) Conclusion
8: Statements by the President, Secretary of Defense and Secretary of
State that Iraq was developing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that could
be used to deliver chemical or biological weapons were generally
substantiated by intelligence information, but did not convey the
substantial disagreements or evolving views that existed in the
intelligence community. The majority view of the October 2002 National
Intelligence Estimate judged that Iraq had a UAV program that was intended
to deliver biological warfare agents. Air Force intelligence dissented
from this view, and argued that the new UAV was probably being developed
for reconnaissance. The majority view of the January 2003 NIE said that
Iraq "may" be modifying UAVs for chemical or biological weapons,
and the Air Force, Army and Defense Intelligence 57
- Agency argued that the evidence for this was "not sufficiently
compelling to indicate that the Iraqis have done so."
- (U) Conclusion
9: The President’s suggestion that the Iraqi government was considering
using UAVs to attack the United States was substantiated by intelligence
judgments available at the time, but these judgments were revised a few
months later, in January 2003. The October 2002 National Intelligence
Estimate noted that an Iraqi procurement network had attempted to purchase
commercial mapping software that included data on the United States, and
said that this suggested that the Iraqi governmentwas considering using
UAVs to target the US. The January 2003 NIE revised this claim, and said
only that the software could be used for this purpose. The Air Force, Army
and Defense Intelligence Agency dissented from this judgment as well, and
argued that the purpose of the Iraqi request was to acquire a generic
mapping capability. Postwar Findings A
- (U) Postwar findings confirm that
Iraq was developing the Al-Samoud and Al-Fat’h (formerly Ababil-100)
missiles, and that both had ranges that exceeded 150 km. In early February
2003 the intelligence community revised it’s assessment of the al-Samoud’s
maximum range down iiom 300 km to 170 km, which was consistent with
postwar iindings.135 In late February 2003 Saddam agreed to UN demands
that his Al-Samoud inventory be destroyed. Postwar findings indicate that
the Iraqi government unilaterally destroyed its remaining Scud-type
ballistic missiles in 1991.
- (U) Postwar findings confirmed that Iraq’s
UAV development program was primarily intended for reconnaissance. Postwar
investigations did not find any evidence that Iraq had conducted any
research to develop a chemical or biological weapons capability for its
developmental UAV program, or that Iraq had intended to use its UAVs for
missions targeting the United States.136 135 National Intelligence
Estimate, Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat
Through 2015, February 2003. 136 Report on Postwar Findings About Iraq ’s
WMD Programs and Links to Terrorism and How They Compare With Prewar
Assessments, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Senate Report
109-331, September 8, 2006. _ 58
page 58
- VH. Links to Terrorism • "Iraq continues to shelter and support
terrorist organizations that direct violence against Iran, Israel, and
Western governments. Iraqi dissidents abroad are targeted for murder. In
1993, Iraq attempted to assassinate the Emir of Kuwait and a former
American President. Iraq’s government openly praised the attacks of
September the 11th. And al Qaeda terrorists escaped from Afghanistan and
are known to be in Iraq." - President George W Bush, Address to the
United Nations General Assembly, September 12, 2002 • "[The Iraqi
regime] has given shelter and support to terrorism, and practices terror
against its own people. The entire world has witnessed Iraq’s
eleven-year history of defiance, deception and bad faith." -
President George W Bush, Cincinnati, Ohio, October 7, 2002 • "Over
the years, Iraq has provided safe haven to terrorists such as Abu Nidal,
whose terror organization carried out more than 90 terrorist attacks in 20
countries that killed or injured nearly 900 people, including 12
Americans. Iraq has also provided safe haven to Abu Abbas, who was
responsible for seizing the Achille Lauro and killing an American
passenger. And we know that Iraq is continuing to finance terror and gives
assistance to groups that use terrorism to undermine Middle East
peace." - President George W Bush, Cincinnati, Ohio, October 7, 2002
• "We know that Iraq and al Qaeda have had high-level contacts that
go back a decade. Some al Qaeda leaders who fled Afghanistan went to Iraq.
These include one very senior al Qaeda leader who received medical
treatment in Baghdad this year, and who has been associated with planning
for chemical and biological attacks. We’ve learned that Iraq has trained
al Qaeda members in bomb-making and poisons and deadly gases." -
President George W Bush, Cincinnati, Ohio, October 7, 2002 •
"Saddam Hussein is harboring terrorists and the instruments of
terror, the instruments of mass death and destruction. And he cannot be
trusted. The risk is simply too great that he will use them, or provide
them to a terror network. " - President George W Bush, Cincinnati,
Ohio, October 7, 2002 • "Evidence from intelligence sources, secret
communications, and statements by people now in custody reveal that Saddam
Hussein aids and protects terrorists, including members of al Qaeda.
Secretly, and without fingerprints, he could provide one of his hidden
weapons to terrorists, or help them develop their own.” — President
George W Bush, State of the Union Address, January 28, 2003 • "But
what I want to bring to your attention today is the potentially much more
sinister nexus between Iraq and the al-Qaida terrorist network, a nexus
that combines classic terrorist organizations and modem methods of murder.
Iraq today harbors a deadly terrorist network headed by Abu Musab al—Zarqawi
an associate and collaborator of Usama bin Laden and his al-Qaida
lieutenants.” - Secretary of State Colin Powell, Address to the United
Nations Security Council, February 5, 2003 59
page 59 see NewsFollowUp.com FEMA
Concentration Camp, Beech Grove, Indiana YouTube
are these meant for US citizens? Sounds ridiculous until you watch
the video.
- • "Those helping to run this camp are Zarqawi lieutenants
operating in northem Kurdish areas outside Saddam Hussein’s controlled
Iraq. But Baghdad has an agent in the most senior levels of the radical
organization Ansar al-Islam that controls this corner of Iraq. In 2000,
this agent offered al-Qaida safe haven in the region." - Secretary of
State Colin Powell, Address to the United Nations Security Council,
February 5, 2003 • "After we swept al-Qaida from Afghanistan, some
of those members accepted this safe haven. They remain there today."
- Secretary of State Colin Powell, Address to the United Nations Security
Council, February 5, 2003 • "Zarqawi’s activities are not
confined to this small comer of northeast Iraq. He traveled to Baghdad in
May of 2002 for medical treatment, staying in the capital of Iraq for two
months while he recuperated to fight another day. During his stay, nearly
two dozen extremists converged on Baghdad and established a base of
operations there. These al- Qaida affiliates in Baghdad now coordinate the
movement of people, money, and supplies into and throughout Iraq for his
network, and they have now been operating freely in the capital for more
than eight months." - Secretary of State Colin Powell, Address to the
United Nations Security Council, February 5, 2003 • "Last year, two
suspected al-Qaida operatives were arrested crossing from Iraq into Saudi
Arabia. They were linked to associates of the Baghdad cell and one of them
received training in Afghanistan on how to use cyanide." - Secretary
of State Colin Powell, Address to the United Nations Security Council,
February 5, 2003 • "We are not surprised that Iraq is harboring
Zarqawi and his subordinates. This understanding builds on decades-long
experience with respect to ties between Iraq and al- Qaida. Going back to
the early and rnid-1990s when bin Laden was based in Sudan, an al-Qaida
source tells us that Saddam and bin Laden reached an understanding that
al- Qaida would no longer support activities against Baghdad. Early al-Qaida
ties were forged by secret high-level intelligence service contacts with
al-Qaida, secret Iraqi intelligence high-level contacts with al-Qaida."
- Secretary of State Colin Powell, Address to the United Nations Security
Council, February 5, 2003 • "We know members of both organizations
met repeatedly and have met at least eight times at very senior levels
since the early 1990s. In 1996, a foreign security service tells us that
bin Laden met with a senior Iraqi intelligence official in Khartoum and
later met the director of the Iraqi intelligence service." -
Secretary of State Colin Powell, Address to the United Nations Security
Council, February 5, 2003 • "Iraqis continue to visit bin Laden in
his new home in Afghanistan. A senior defector, one of Saddam’s former
intelligence chiefs in Europe, says Saddam sent his agents to Afghanistan
sometime in the mid-1990s to provide training to al-Qaida members on
document forgery." - Secretary of State Colin Powell, Address to the
United Nations Security Council, February 5, 2003 60
page 60
- • "The support that this detainee describes included Iraq
offering chemical or biological weapons training for two al-Qaida
associates beginning in December 2000." - Secretary of State Colin
Powell, Address t0 the United Nations Security Council, February 5, 2003
-
(U) The Committee addressed the pre-war intelligence linking Iraq and
terrorist organizations in its first Iraq report, US. Intelligence
Community ’s Prewar Intelligence Assessments 0n Iraq, in July 2004. The
Committee reviewed the accuracy of the prewar intelligence in its report,
Postwar Findings about Iraq ’s WMD Programs and Links t0 Terrorism and
How They Compare · with Prewar Assessments, in September 2006.
- (U) Scope
Note: This section addresses statements that referenced past or present
Iraqi links to terrorism. Statements regarding possible future links or
cooperation between the Iraqi regime and terrorism are discussed in the
Intent section. Vice President’s Speech in Tennessee (August 26, 2002)
-
(U) The Vice President made no reference to links between Iraq and al Qaeda
or any other terrorist group in his August 2002 speech. President’s
Speech to the UN General Assembly (September 12, 2002)
- (U) In this speech,
the President stated that "Iraq continues to shelter and support
terrorist organizations" in violation of UN Security Council
Resolution 1372, and that "al Qaeda terrorists escaped from
Afghanistan and are known to be in Iraq."
- (U) The intelligence
community believed that Iraq had long supported, through safeharbor,
financial support, and training various regional terrorist organizations
such as Abu Nidal and Palestinian groups. For example, Director Tenet
testified before the Committee on February 6, 2002 that, "Iraq
provides safe haven, financial support, and low-level training to a number
of terrorist groups——including the Palestine Liberation Front, the Abu
Nidal Organization, and the Mojaheddin al Kha1q." 137 (U) The
February 2002 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), International
Terrorist Threats t0 US Interests, included a section on Iraq under the
heading of state sponsors of terrorism. The NIE stated that "Saddam
will continue contacts with several terrorist groups and will weigh
carefully the risks and possible beneifits of supporting their
operations." It continued that "As Iraq strengthens ties to
other countries and sends its intelligence officers abroad, under official
or commercial cover, its ability to conduct or sponsor terrorism will
increase." 137 See also CIA, SEM, The Terrorist Threat jrom Iraq,
December 15, 2001, "Baghdad continues to provide safehaven, financial
support, and low-level terrorist training to a number of terrorist groups.
Iraq continues to support to varying degrees the Palestine Liberation
Front (PLF), the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK), the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK),
Abu Ibrahim of the 15 May Organization, the Arab Liberation Front, and the
Abu Nidal Organization, which appears to be rebuilding with help from
Iraq." _ 61
page 61
- _ A CIA r ort in June 2002 discussed al Qaeda operatives moving from
Afghanistan to Iraq, saying ‘ reporting show that unknown numbers of al Qaeda
associates fleeing Afghanistan since December have used Iraq—including
the Kurdish areas of northern Iraq, Baghdad, and other regions—as a
safehaven and transit area." The paper continued, "We lack
positive indications that Baghdad is complicit in this activity, but the
persistence of an al Qaeda presence and the operatives’ silence about
any harassment from Iraqi authorities, who closely monitor the population,
may indicate Baghdad is acquiescent or finds their presence
useful."l38 _ A June 24, 2002 c1A··se¤rer, Pubirsh VVhen Reeayr
(sewn) repea, Iraq: Sizing Up Connections to Al-Qa 'ida, stated that ‘
reporting indicate some al Qaeda operatives and fighters, including
most notably senior al- Qa’ida operative Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi, have
fled to Baghdad as well as to the Kurdish regions since the Taliban
collapsed. 1 intelligence gives no indication of Iraqi regime complicity
but also reveals no concern about possible arrest or scrutiny by Iraqi
security services."1 9 President’s Speech in Cincinnati (October 7,
2002)
Chalabi, and John McCain support of Chalabi  |
- Think
Progress "Iraqi exile leader Ahmad Chalabi was
one of the most sordid figures in the run-up to the Iraq war.
Paid by the Bush administration to muster pre-war intelligence,
Chalabi drummed up claims that Saddam Hussein had WMD, helping
lead the United States into war. More recently, he promoted the
“surge” to the Iraqi government. A new book by Aram Roston
reveals that Chalabi supported John McCain (R-AZ) for president
in 2000, believing that the senator would be the most receptive
to his agenda. Muckraked reports:
One of his key backers has been John McCain,
who was one of the first patrons of Chalabi’s grand-sounding
International Committee for a Free Iraq when it was founded in
1991. McCain was Chalabi’s favored candidate in the 2000
election since Chalabi knew that he would be able to free up the
$97 million in military aid plus millions pushed through in
Congress and earmarked for Chalabi’s exile group, the Iraqi
National Congress, but held up by the Clinton State Department.
Indeed, McCain was a Chalabi backer long
before President Bush took power. In 1997, he tried to pressure
the Clinton administration into setting up an Iraqi government
in exile. Despite opposition from the Pentagon and the State
Department, the next fall, McCain co-sponsored the Iraq
Liberation Act, committing the United States to overthrowing
Saddam and funding opposition groups. According to a 2006
article by John Judis: McCain welcomed Ahmed Chalabi, leader of
the Iraqi National Congress (INC), to Washington and pressured
the administration to give him money. When General Anthony Zinni
cast doubt upon the effectiveness of the Iraqi opposition,
McCain rebuked him at a hearing of the Senate Armed Services
Committee.
In 2003, McCain joined four other Republican
senators and asked Bush to “personally clear the bureaucratic
roadblocks within the State Department” that blocked increased
funding for the Chalabi’s group. Also that year, McCain said
of Chalabi, “He’s a patriot who has the best interests of
his country at heart.”
-
-
Iraqi National Congress research
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YouTube
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-
- (U) This speech made a number of distinct claims about Iraq and
terrorism. The President reiterated his earlier statement about Iraq
providing shelter and support to terrorism, specifically citing safe haven
for Abu Nidal and Abu Abbas and financing of terrorist groups undermining
Middle East peace.
- (U) The President stated that "We know that Iraq
and al Qaeda have had high-level contacts that go back a decade." He
referenced al Qaeda leaders fleeing Afghanistan for Iraq, noting in
particular Abu Musab al-Zarqawi as having "received medical treatment
in Baghdad." The President added that "We’ve learned that Iraq
has trained al Qaeda members in bomb-making and poisons and deadly
gases."
- (U) Finally, the President stated that Saddam Hussein was
"harboring terrorists and the instruments of terror, the instruments
of mass death and destruction." While this statement was not specific
to any group, the placement in the speech and the context suggests that
the President was stating that Hussein was harboring al Qaeda. The
statement appeared two paragraphs after statements that ". . .Iraq
and the al Qaeda terrorist network share a common enemy," that some
"al Qaeda leaders who fled Afghanistan went to Iraq," and that
"Iraq has trained a1 Qaeda members in bomb-making and poisons and
deadly gases." (These statements are discussed elsewhere in this
report.) The President’s statement came in the same paragraph as the
statement "confronting the threat posed by Iraq is crucial to winning
the war on terror."
- (U) The President’s statement on contacts
between Iraq and al Qaeda did not elaborate on the nature of these
contacts or whether they reflected a substantive relationship between the
two 138 Central Intelligence Agency, Iraq and al Qaeda: Interpreting a
Murky Relationship, June 2l, 2002, 9. Other reports on al Qaeda’s
presence in Iraq include CIA, SEIB, Sep l0, 2002, al Qaeda Determined
to Strike Soon; and May 24, 2002 State Department INR document entitled,
Iraq terrorists Al-Qaida Operatives Moving into Baghdad. 139 CIA SPWR,
Iraq: Sizing Up Connections to AZ-Qa ’ida, (SPWRO62402-Ol). 62
page 62
-
- _ sides. The intelligence community reported numerous times on
interactions between elements in the Iraqi regime and members of al Qaeda and, through direct contacts with Saddam Hussein as well as with various
high-level Iraq regime officials. (U) DCI Tenet’s statement to the
Committee on February 6, 2002 underscored the duration of the contacts but
provided additional analysis on the nature of those contacts. He wrote
that "Baghdad’s connections to al Qaeda are tenuous, but they
appear to have maintained a mutually wary relationship for nearly a
decade. Intelligence reports indicate that Iraq has maintained a liaison
relationship with Bin Laden. At the same time, we assess that their
divergent ideologies make it difficult for Baghdad and al Qaeda to
forge the kind of cooperation that Baghdad has with terrorist groups such
as the PLF, AN O, and the MEK." (U) A CIA paper from June 7, 2002
noted that intelligence reporting "of varying reliability indicates
that the Iraqi regime and al Qaeda have had mutually wary contacts for
the last decade. It is possible that the two have forged ties that could
have resulted in cooperation on specific terrorist operations, but the
available reporting does not point to such a relationship."l 0 (U) In
part of an intelligence summary that dismissed a claim that Saddam and bin
Laden met in Iraq in 2000, the DLA assessed that "an alliance between
the two individuals is unlikely as Saddam views Bin Laden’s brand of
Islam as a threat to his regime and Bin Laden is opposed to those Muslim
states that do not follow his version of Islam."m This theme was
repeated in a June 24, 2002 CIA paper, which assessed that
"interaction between Saddam and Bin Laden appears to be more akin to
activity between rival intelligence services, each trying to use the
relationship to its own advantage."142 (U) The same report also noted
that "contacts between the Iraqi regime and al Qaeda appear to
reach back over the past l0 years and possibly strengthened around 1998. CIA
analysts agree al- Qa’ida gained some tangible benefits from these
contacts but do not agree on Sadda1n’s agenda. Some think he is
concerned principally with penetrating and monitoring al Qaeda, while
others see more collusion."143 (U) Another CIA report in June 2002
said, "intelligence reporting highlights more than a decade of
contacts between the Iraqi Government and al Qaeda based on shared
anti-US goals and Bin Laden’s interest in unconventional weapons and
safehaven."144 This report was "purposefully aggressive in
seeking to draw cormections, on the assumption that any indication of a
relationship between these two hostile elements could carry great dangers
to the United States." Nonetheless, the report assessed that the
"pattern of contacts and cooperation reflects wariness coupled with
recognition of potential mutual benefit. In contrast to the traditional
patron-client relationship Iraq enjoys with radical secular Palestinian
groups, the ties between 140 CIA SPWR dated June 7, 2002 titled, Possible
Meeting Between Bin Laden and Iraqi Ojicials in Sudan. H1 AFebruary 6,
2002, and a February 7, 2002 DITSUM (No. 031-02 and No. 032-02). 142 - A
June 24, 2002 SPWR, Iraq: Sizing Up Connections to AZ-Qa ’ida
(SPWR062402-0 l). Later, the report states "_ reporting indicates
that Bin Laden, while in Sudan in 1993, reached an ‘understanding’
with Saddam under which Bin Laden’s followers would not undertake
actions against the Iraqi leader. The report indicated the two also agreed
to cooperate, although no details were provided." 1 . 144 CIA, Iraq
and al-Qaida: Interpreting a Murky Relationship, June 21, 2002. _ 63
page 63
- Saddam and Bin Laden appear to be much like those between rival
intelligence services, with each side trying to exploit the other for its
own benefit."
- (U) The intelligence on the contacts between Iraq and
al Qaeda appears to have grown by Fall of 2002. A CIA paper from September
13, 2002, stated that "We have identified about 12 meetings between
Iraqi officials and senior al-Qa` ida leaders from a review of reporting
we assess to have at least some credibility. Ten of these reports mention
specific discussions involving top al- Qa’ida operatives."]45 _ DCI
Tenet’s September 17, 2002 testimony to the Committee elaborated on
these contacts, saying that "there is solid evidence that Iraq and al Qaeda
have had sporadic contacts over the past decade. Intelligence
reports point to various Iraq-al Qaeda meetings through high-level and
third-party intermediaries.
- (U) Tenet also described in his testimony
"credible reporting of about a dozen direct meetings between senior
Iraqi intelligence officials and top al Qaeda operatives from the early
1990s to the present." He noted that the intelligence sources on the
contacts "do not describe Iraqi complicity in, control over, or
authorization of specific terrorist attacks carried out by al Qaeda.
Taken together, the mass of reporting outlines a relationship in which
both sides probably were determining how best to take advantage of the
other.”]46
- (U) On the topic of Iraqi providing harbor for al Qaeda
members, Tenet’s September 17, 2002 testimony began by saying that
"most of the reporting on this involves Kurdish-inhabited northern
Iraq, which Baghdad has not controlled since 1991. Intelligence confirms
that al- Qa’ida fighters have relocated to the north, where they are
hosted by a local Kurdish extremist group called Ansar al Islam. The
relocations have increased since the U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan
began late last year. We estimate there are about 100 to 200 al-Qa’ ida
members and associates in the area." _ Tenet added that "an
unknown number of al Qaeda associates have fled during the past six
months to or through other parts of Iraq .... 1 intelligence in May 2002
indicated that several militants associated with al Qaeda were checking
into hotels in Baghdad and were using the Iraqi capital as a base for
financial transactions and other activities.” Tenet concluded these
statements, however, by saying that "we do not know to what extent
Baghdad may be actively complicit in this use of its territory for safe
haven and transit. The operatives have not mentioned Iraq’s security
presence, but their conversations often are cryptic, sprinkled with code
words, and short on specifics. Given the pervasive presence of Iraq’s
security apparatus, it would be difficult for al-Qaida to maintain an
active, long-terrn presence in Iraq without alerting the authorities or
without at least their acquiescence." 145 SPWR dated September 13,
2002 titled, Terrorism: Contacts Between al-Qu 'idrz Ojjicials and Iraqi
Intelligence O cers. l4gSeptember 17, 2002 testimony by DCI Tenet to the
Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. _ 64
page 64
- (U) The President’s next statement in the Cincinnati speech was that
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi "received medical treatment in Baghdad.”
Director Tenet’s September 17, 2002 testimony noted this point
specifically, saying that, "Of particular interest is senior al Qaeda
planner Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi, who was in Baghdad under an assumed
identity in late May, possibly seeking medical treatment. We do not know
his current location, but his close associates remain active in Baghdad,
leaving open the possibility that he could be elsewhere in Iraq." The
issue of Zarqawi’s medical treatment was also discussed in reports by
the State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research and the DLA.147
-
(U) The President’s final terrorism statement in the speech was "[w]e’ve
learned that Iraq has trained al Qaeda members in bomb making and
poisons and deadly gases .” The intelligence community had produced
assessments on the topic of bomb making. The intelligence reports on
chemical and biological weapons training came primarily from the
interrogation of al Qaeda detainee Ibn al-Shaykh al-Libi.
- (U) The
September 2002 CIA report Iraqi Support for Terrorism, which was
coordinated with the DLA, stated that al-Libi said Iraq had
"provided" unspecified CBW training for two al-Qa’ ida
associates in 2000, but also stated that al Libi "did not know the
results of the training."148 In the June 2002 paper, Iraq and al Qa
’ida: Interpreting a Murky Relationshqr, the CIA also stated that al-Libi
claimed Iraq had "provided" unspecified CBW training for two al Qaeda
associates in 2000.149
- (U) Director Tenet testified in September 2002
that, "[t]here is evidence that Iraq provided al- Qa’ida with
various kinds of training—combat, bomb-making, and CBRN. Although Saddam
did not endorse al Qaeda’s overall agenda and was suspicious of
Islamist movements in general, he was apparently not averse, under certain
circumstances, to enhancing Bin Laden’s operational capabilities.
- (U)
The October 2002 WMD National Intelligence Estimated stated that
"Detainee Ibn al- Shaykh al-Libi—who had significant responsibility
for training—has told us that Iraq provided unspecified chemical or
biological weapons training for two al Qaeda members beginning in
December 2000."150
| |
- Christian
Science Monitor "J
Street," a new lobby which
describes itself as pro-Israel. It's directed by Jeremy Ben-Ami,
a former Clinton official whose father fought alongside Menachem
Begin for Israel's independence. J Street (a play on the K
Street address of many lobbyists), seeks a less hard-line US
policy in the Middle East and wants to create an environment in
which politicians can confidently discuss such a change without
fear of political punishment or being labeled anti-Semitic.
Several US groups share J Street's views but they don't have
much political muscle. J Street wants to build clout by using
the Internet to raise money from small donors, and to contribute
to congressional campaigns. ... Next week, it will endorse
several candidates who support a major US push for a negotiated,
two-state solution to the Palestinian crisis. J Street also
favors dialogue with Israel's enemies, including Hamas and Iran;
an Israeli-Syrian peace deal; and US withdrawal from Iraq.
|
- (U) Months prior to the speech and the latter
intelligence products cited above, questions were raised in iinished
intelligence about al-Libi’s credibility. A February 22, 2002 DLA
Defense Intelligence Terrorism Summary noted that Ibn al-Shaykh [al-Libi]
"lacks specific details on the Iraqi’s involvement, the CBRN
materials associated with the assistance, and the location where the
training occurred. It is possible he does not know any further details; it
is more likely this individual is intentionally misleading the debriefers.
Ibn al-Shaykh has been undergoing debriefs for several weeks and may be
describing scenarios to the debriefers that he knows will retain their
interest. Saddarn’s regime is intensely secular and is wary of Islamic
revolutionary 147 State INR, Iraq/Terrorism: Al-Qaida Operatives Moving
into Baghdad, May 24, 2002; DIA, Transnational/Iraq; Senior al-Qaida
Operative Reportedly in Iraq, May 28, 2002 DIA. 148 CIA, Iraqi Support for
Terrorism, September 2002, p. I2 (SSCI # 2005-5178). 149 CIA, Iraq and al-Qa
’ida.· Interpreting a Murky Relationship, July 2002, p. 6 (SSCI#
2002-3005). 150 National Intelligence Estimate, Iraq’s Continuing
Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction, October 2002, 68. _ 65
- movements. Moreover, Baghdad is unlikely to provide assistance to a
group it cannot control."m
- (U) DIA reiterated some of these points in
additional reports. On August 7, 2002, the CIA reported on al-Libi’s
credibility. The summary of the report stated that "questions persist
about [al-Libi’s] forthrightness and truthfulness" and later
elaborating, "In some instances, however, he seems to have fabricated
information. Perhaps in an attempt to exaggerate his own importance, Ibn
al-Shaykh claims to be a member of al Qaeda’s Shura Council, a claim
not corroborated by other intelligence reporting"l52 President’s
State of the Union Address (January 28, 2003)
- (U) President Bush stated
that "Saddam Hussein aids and protects terrorists, including members
of al Qaeda." He also reiterated the concern that Iraq could secretly
provide weapons to terrorists or help them develop their own. The
intelligence relating to these claims was described above.
- (U) The
November 2002 NIE, Nontraditional Threats to the US Homeland Through 2007
repeated much of the intelligence cited above on the relationship between
Iran and al Qaeda.l53 The NIE said that "the relationship between
the Iraqi regime and al Qaeda appears more to be two sides trying to
feel one another out or exploit each other." The NIE cited
"solid reporting" that "Iraq and al-Qa’ ida have had
senior-level contacts going back to the rise of Usarna Bin Laden.
Intelligence reportirrg-albeit fragmentary and at times corrtlicting-indicates
a series of contacts over nearly a decade between the Iraqi Government and
al Qaeda .... "l54
- (U) The NIE also stated that "[w]e have
credible reporting that al Qaeda leaders sought help from Baghdad in
acquiring WMD capabilities and that Iraq provided training in bomb-making
and, according to one detainee, in the area of chemical and biological
agents," and that "[w]e have solid evidence of the presence in
Iraq of al Qaeda members including some that have been in Baghdadrm
Secretary of State ’s Address to the UN Security Council (February 5,
2003)
- (U) Secretary Powell’s statements repeated and amplified those
previously mentioned. His stated that Iraq "harbors a deadly
terrorist network" headed by Zarqawi; that an Iraqi agent
"offered al-Qaida safe haven" in the northern Kurdish regions;
and that "al-Qaida affiliates in Baghdad now ... have been operating
freely in the capital for more than eight months." 151 DIA DITSUM
044-02 of February 22, 2002. 152 CIA, Terrorism: Credibility of Ibn al-Shaykh
al—Libi and the Information He Has Provided While in Custody (SPWR080702—05),
August 7, 2002. I 153 This NIE was not published until I anuary 2003. 154
National Intelligence Estimate, Nontraditional Threats to the US Homeland
Through 2007, NIE 2002-15HJ, November 2002, 16-17. *55 ibid, 17. _ 66
page 66
- (U) Secretary Powell referred to "secret Iraqi intelligence
high-level contacts with al-Qaida" that resulted in an understanding
between Hussein and bin Laden that al—Qa’ida would not to support
terrorist activities against Baghdad. Powell cited "at least eight
[meetings] at very senior levels since the early 1990s." He cited
"a foreign security service as providing information on meetings
between bin Laden and an Iraqi intelligence offrcer in 1996 and the head
of the Iraqi intelligence service afterwards. Powell laid out cooperation
between Iraq and al-Qa’ ida, including Iraq’s provision of assistance
in document forgery, bombmaking, and chemical and biological weapons
training.
- (U) Many of these statements are consistent with ones made in
speeches previously described. Additional intelligence relating to
Secretary Powell’s statements is below.
- (U) On January 31, 2003, the
State Department Undersecretary for INR, Carl Ford, wrote a memo to
Secretary Powell laying out the intelligence on Iraq’s ties to al Qaeda.
He wrote that "Our evidence suggests that Baghdad is strengthening a
relationship with al-Qaida that dates back to the mid-1990s, when senior
Iraqi Intelligence officers established contact with the network in
several countries." Ford added that "we have some evidence that
Iraqi Intelligence has been in contact with elements in the northeastern
area. And the al-Qaida operatives there are in regular contact with other
operatives located in Baghdad. The Iraqi governmenthas also received
information from other sources alerting it to the presence of al-Qaida
operatives in Baghdad."
- (U) Ford wrote that Zarqawi "has had a
good relationship with Iraqi intelligence officials" and that
"we have hard evidence that al-Qaida is operating in several
locations in Iraq with the knowledge and acquiescence of Saddam’s
regime." Ford wrote that intelligence "revealed the presence of
safehouse facilities in the city as well as the clear intent to remain in
Baghdad. Also, foreign NGO workers outside of Iraq who we believe provide
support to al-Qaida have also expressed their intent to set up shop in
Baghdad."
- (U) Secretary Powell stated that the Zarqawi network had
freedom of movement in Baghdad the ability to command and control
terrorist elements throughout Iraq. As discussed previously, several
intelligence reports noted Zarqawi’s presence in Baghdad, including a
September 2002 CIA assessment which said "Although most al Qaeda operatives in Iraq are adjacent to the Kurdish safehaven in northern Iraq,
an unknown number of individuals have used Baghdad and other regions of
the country as bases to orchestrate operations."156 - Director Tenet
testifred to the Committee on Se tember 17, 2002 that "In Jaw , an sl-
aids assssists brsggsd that the situation in W was ood, that Baghdad could
be transited quickly formally or informally, ."
- (U) A CIA SPWR dated
December 21, 2002 titled, Iraq: Extremists in Baghdad Aid Al-Zarqawi
Operations, relayed that "[Reporting] indicates more than a dozen al Qaeda
affiliated extremists converged on Baghdad beginning in May and have since
been coordinating the movement of people, money, and supplies into Baghdad
and northeastern Iraq. Veteran Egyptian Islamic Jihad 156 CIA, Iraqi
Support for Terrorism, September 2002, p. iv. _ 67
page 67
- (EIJ) operative Yusif al-Dardiri a.rrived in Baghdad in mid-May—about
the time Abu Mus’ab al- Zarqawi went there for medical treatrnent-and
signed a one-year house lease for his associates." The CIA reported
again on al-Dardiri in a January 2003 report, Iraqi Support for Terrorism,
stating that he was in Baghdad and facilitating Zarqawi’s operations.
-
(U) Secretary Powell described the group Ansar al-Islam in northern Iraq,
and area that Powell said was outside of Saddam’s control. He that an
Iraqi agent that was in a senior position in Ansar al-Islam had offered
al-Qaida safe haven in the north. The intelligence community agreed that al Qaeda
and Ansar al-Islam had a relationship and that terrorist
training and plotting was ongoing in northern Iraq.
- (U) A February 2003
CIA report noted that "In an August 2000 meeting, al Qaeda officials met with three Kurdish Islamist leaders, now all senior AI
officials, who agreed to provide al Qaeda a safehaven if the group lost
Afghanistan as a sanctuary, according to a PUK detainee."157 A
separate CIA report noted that "Abu Wa’il, whose role as a senior
AI official and close al Qaeda associate allows him to know the full
scope of activities in northeastern Iraq and in Baghdad, was identified as
an IIS associate by three detainees in PUK custody."158
- (U) The link
between Baghdad and Ansar al-Islam was, however, questioned in
intelligence channels. An August 15, 2002 State Department INR assessment,
Terrorism: Al-Qaida ’s Presence in Iraq—An Update, stated that
"We still have not seen definitive evidence of cooperation between
Saddam Hussein’s regime and al-Qaida, but the Iraqi Intelligence Service
(IIS) almost certainly is aware al-Qaida operatives are present in
Iraq." Director Tenet’s September 17, 2002 testimony to the
Committee included that "Baghdad reportedly has had contacts with
Ansar al-Islam that include IIS penetrations of the organization, but we
ca.nnot determine their frequency or purpose."
- (U) Secretary Powell’s
UN speech repeated previous Administration statements about the length and
number of contacts between Iraq and al Qaeda. This issue is addressed
above. Secretary Powell did reference "an understanding that al-Qaida
would no longer support activities against Baghdad."
- (U) A May I4,
2002, CIA paper Iraq: Strengthening Its Terrorist Capabilities, noted that
"In 1993, Bin Laden reached an ‘understanding’ with Saddam under
which al Qaeda forbade operations against the Iraqi leader, according
to sensitive reporting that was released in US court documents during the
Aiiica Embassy trial." The September 13, 2002, CIA paper Terrorism:
Contacts Between al-Qa ’ida Officials and Iraqi Intelligence Officers
included a comment that "Sensitive reporting indicates that Bin Laden
reached an ‘understanding’ with Baghdad in 1993 that al Qaeda would
not support any anti-Saddarn activities. We have no information about how
such an agreement might have been reached." Additional Statements 157
CIA Senior Executive Intelligence Brief, Terrorism: Ansar al Islam’s
Threat to the US (SEIB 03-028CHX) February 4, 2003. 158 Abu Wa’il was
one of the three AI officials in the February 2003 CIA report. 68
page 68
| Wayne
Madsen Report |
 |
- January 18-20, 2008 - Plame and Edmonds were looking at the
same covert network
WMR has learned that former CIA covert agent Valerie Plame
Wilson, whose covert status was leaked by the Bush White House,
and former FBI translator Sibel Edmonds, who was focused on a
major covert network involving Turkish, Israeli, and key members
of the Bush administration and Republican Party and weapons and
drug smuggling, were essentially looking at the same network.
The nexus of Turkey with both the covert CIA Brewster
Jennings and Associates operations and the Turkish-Israeli
network of influence active within the Defense and State
Departments, is the key factor in understanding the complicated
counter-espionage operation conducted by both the FBI and CIA.
The congressional investigation by Senators Pat Leahy and
Charles Grassley in support of Edmonds' revelations and
congressional and judicial efforts to obtain White House emails
on the leak of Plame's identity have been stymied by a powerful
array of top Bush administration officials, including Vice
President Dick Cheney, Bush adviser Karl Rove, Deputy Secretary
of State Richard Armitage, convicted Cheney Chief of Staff I.
Lewis "Scooter" Libby, former Deputy Defense Secretary
for Policy and Plans Douglas Feith, and Undersecretary of State
for Political Affairs Marc Grossman. full
article
|
-
- • "There is certainly evidence that al Qaeda people have been in
Iraq. There is certainly evidence that Saddam Hussein cavorts with
terrorists. 1 think that if you asked, do we know that he had a role in
9/11, no, we do not know that he had a role in 9/11. But I think that this
is the test that sets a bar that is far too high." — National
Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, Late Edition, September 8, 2002. •
"He plays host to terrorist networks,’assassinates his opponents,
both in Iraq and abroad, and has attempted to assassinate a former
president of the United States." - Secretary of Defense Donald
Rumsfeld, Testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, September
18, 2002. • "[Since we began after September 11th,] we do have
solid evidence of the presence in Iraq of al Qaeda members, including some
that have been in Baghdad. We have what we consider to be very reliable
reporting of senior level contacts going back a decade, and of possible
chemical and biological agent training. And when I say contacts, I mean
between Iraq and al Qaeda. The reports of these contacts have been
increasing since 1998. We have what we believe to be credible information
that Iraq and al Qaeda have discussed safe haven opportunities in Iraq,
reciprocal nonaggression discussions. We have what we consider to be
credible evidence that al Qaeda leaders have sought contacts in Iraq who
could help them acquire weapons of mass destruction capabilities. We do
have -- I believe it’s one report indicating that Iraq provided
unspeciied training relating to chemical and/or biological matters for al
Qaeda members. There is, I’m told, also some other information of
varying degrees of reliability that supports that conclusion of their
cooperation." — Secretary of Defense Donald Rumskzld, Press
briefing, September 26, 2002. ‘ • "We also know that Iraq is
harboring a terrorist network, headed by a senior al Qaeda terrorist
planner. The network runs a poison and explosive training center in
northeast Iraq, and many of its leaders are known to be in Baghdad."
- President George W Bush, Press conference, February 6, 2003.
- (U) These
statements are consistent with those described above. • "We know
that al-Qaeda is operating in Iraq today, and that little happens in Iraq
without the knowledge of the Saddam Hussein regime. We also know that
there have been a number of contacts between Iraq and al-Qaeda over the
years. We know Saddam has ordered acts of terror himself, including the
attempted assassination of a former U.S. President" — Secretary of
Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Testimony before the Senate Armed Services
Committee, September 19, 2002. • ". .. it’s been pretty well
confirmed that [Mohammed Atta] did go to Prague and he did meet with a
senior official of the Iraqi intelligence service in Czechoslovakia last
April, several months before the attack. Now, what the purpose of that
was, what transpired between them, we simply don’t know at this point,
but that’s clearly an avenue that we want to pursue." - Vice
President Richard Cheney, Meet the Press, December 9, 2001. 69
page 69
-
- • ". .. We’ve seen in connection with the hijackers, of
course, Mohamed Atta, who was the lead hijacker, did apparently travel to
Prague on a number of occasions. And on at least one occasion, we have
reporting that places him in Prague with a senior Iraqi intelligence
official a few months before the attack on the World Trade Center. The
debates about, you know, was he there or wasn’t he there, again, it’s
the intelligence business. [Tim Russert:
What does the CIA say about that?
Is it credible?] It’s credible. But, you know, I think a way to put it
would be it’ s unconfirmed at this point." - Vice President Dick
Cheney, Meet the Press, September 8, 2002.
- (U) Shortly after the 9/11
attacks, the intelligence community produced reports of a meeting between
9/11 hijacker Mohammad Atta and an Iraqi intelligence official. A
September 17, 2001 CIA report, Iraq: Indications of Possible Iraqi Links
to Attacks, noted "a foreign government service last Thursday
reported that the local Iraqi Intelligence Service chief met in mid-April
with suspected American Airlines Flight 11 hijacker Mohammad Atta.159
Shortly thereafter, the CIA reported that Saddam Hussein was trying to
"avert a US strike by asking other Arab governments to convey to
Washington that Baghdad is not complicit in the ll September
attacks."16O
- (U) There were several intelligence reports between
September 2001 and September 2002 that both repeated the initial claims
that Atta met with Iraqi officials and stated that the claims could not be
corroborated or verified. Some of the reports stated that the only
confirmed trip by Atta to Prague was in 2000, most reports stated that a
2001 visit could not be confirmed. A
- (U) On November 1, 2001, a CIA report
relayed the Czech Government’s public confirmation that Atta met with an
Iraqi intelligence official and cited a "foreign government
service" as saying the meeting occurred. The CIA stated that the
agency "cannot corroborate Atta’s travel to Prague in April through
travel or financial records but he could have traveled under an
alias" and that CIA has no new information on the substance of the
alleged meetings."161 A follow-up CIA report on March 19, 2002, said
that the CIA was "pursuing conflicting leads and repeated that it was
"trying to confirm a report that American Airlines Flight 11 hijacker
Muhammad Atta met with Iraqi intelligence officer al-Ani in Prague in
April of last year."l62 The report stated that "Neither the
Czechs nor we have been able to verify Atta’s alleged trip to Prague in
April of last year." (U) A May 14, 2002 CIA report again cited the
foreign government service reporting from September 2001 and said that
"Fragmentary intelligence reporting points to indirect ties between
Baghdad and the 11 September hijackers but offers no conclusive indication
of Iraqi complicity 159 Central Intelligence Agency SEIB, Iraq:
Indications of Possible Iraqi Links to Attacks, September 17, 2001. 160
Central Intelligence Agency SEIB, Iraq: Using Back Channels To Refute
Terrorist Allegations, September 28, 200 1. 161 - Central Intelli ence A
enc , SPWR titled, Terrorism: Muhammed Atta 's travels to Prague -
November 1, 2001. CIA, SPWR dated March 19, 2002, T errorism: Reporting on
Muhammad Atta in Prague. 70
page 70
- or foreknowledge. Foreign government service sensitive reporting in
September. indicated that Muhammad Atta met with an IIS officer in Prague
in April of 2001. There is contradictory reporting on this trip and we
have not been able to verify Atta’s reported trip through other
channels."463 A DIA report on July 31, 2002 stated that "There
are significant informationgaps in this reporting that render the issue
impossible to prove or disprove with available information."4 4
Conclusions (U) Conclusion 10: Statements in the major speeches analyzed,
as well additional statements, regarding Iraq’s support for terrorist
groups other than al Qaeda were substantiated by intelligence
information. The intelligence community reported regularly on Iraq’s
safe harbor and financial support for Palestinian rejectionist groups, the
Abu Nidal Organization, and others. The February 2002 NIE fully supported
the claim that Iraq had, and would continue, to support terrorist groups.
-
(U) Conclusion 11: Statements that Iraq provided safe haven for Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi and other al Qaeda-related terrorist members were
substantiated by the intelligence assessments. Intelligence assessments
noted Zarqawi’s presence in Iraq and his ability to travel and operate
within the country. The intelligence community generally believed that
Iraqi intelligence must have known about, and therefore at least
tolerated, Zarqawi’s presence in the country.
- (U) Conclusion 12:
Statements and implications by the President and Secretary of State
suggesting that Iraq and al Qaeda had a partnership, or that Iraq had
provided al Qaeda with weapons training, were not substantiated by the
intelligence. Intelligence assessments, including multiple CIA reports and
the November 2002 NIE, dismissed the claim that Iraq and al Qaeda were
cooperating partners. According to an undisputed INR footnote in the NIE,
there was no intelligence information that supported the claim that Iraq
would provide weapons of mass destruction to al Qaeda. The credibility
of the principal intelligence source behind the claim that Iraq had
provided al Qaeda with biological and chemical weapons training was
regularly questioned by DIA, and later by the CIA. The Committee repeats
its conclusion from a prior report that "assessments were
inconsistent regarding the likelihood that Saddam Hussein provided
chemical and biological weapons (CBW) training to al Qaeda."465
-
(U) Conclusion 13: Statements in the major speeches analyzed, as well
additional statements, regarding Iraq’s contacts with al Qaeda were
substantiated by intelligence information. However, policymakers’
statements did not accurately convey the intelligence assessments of the
nature of these contacts, and left the impression that the contacts led to
substantive Iraqi cooperation or support of al Qaeda. M3 CIA, SPWR
dated May 14, 2002 titled, Iraq: Strengthening Its Terrorist Capabilities.
464 DIA, July 31, 2002 DIA Special Analysis, Iraq ’s Inconclusive Ties
to al-Qaida. 165 Report on Postwar Findings About Iraq ’s WMD Programs
and Links to Terrorism and How They Compare With Prewar Assessments,
Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Senate Report 109-331, September
8, 2006. 71
page 71
- (U) Conclusion 14. The Intelligence Community did not confirm that
Muhammad Atta met an Iraqi intelligence officer in Prague in 2001. Postwar
Findings
- (U) The Committee issued a number of conclusions in its September
2006 report, Postwar Findings about Iraq ’s WMD Programs and Links to
Terrorism and How They Compare with Prewar Assessments, relating to the
pre-war links between Iraq and terrorism. The Committee found the
following.
- (U) Iraq and al Qaeda did not have a cooperative
relationship. Saddam Hussein was distrustful of al Qaeda and viewed
Islamic extremists as a threat to his regime, refusing all requests from al Qaeda
to provide material or operational support.
- (U) Most of the
contacts cited between Iraq and al Qaeda before the war by the
intelligence community and policymakers have been determined not to have
occurred. One of the reported contacts has been confirmed, and two other
meetings have since been identified.
- (U) Postwar information supports
prewar assessments and statements that Abu Musab al- Zarqawi was in
Baghdad and that al Qaeda was present in northern Iraq.
- (U) No postwar
information has been found that indicates Iraq provided chemical and
biological weapons training to al Qaeda. The detainee who provided the
key prewar reporting about this training recanted his claims after the
war. In 2004, Ibn Shaykh al-Libi recanted his earlier statements about
biological and chemical weapons training. Al-Libi told debriefers that he
had fabricated information while in US custody to receive better treatment
and in response to threats of being transferred to a foreign intelligence
service which he believed would torture him. He also said that later,
while he was being debriefed by a foreign intelligence service, he
fabricated more information in response to physical abuse and threats of
torture. The Committee’s prior report on post-war findings cited a CIA
officer who explained that while CIA believes that al- Libi fabricated
information, the CIA cannot determine whether, or what portions of, the
original statements or the later recants are true or fa1se.166
- (U)
Intelligence gathered after the war has led analysts to doubt that Mohamed
Atta had ` meetings with Iraq officials in the Czech Republic. According
to the Committee’s prior report, "Postwar findings support CIA’s
January 2003 assessment, which judged that ‘the most reliable reporting
casts doubt’ on one of the leads, an alleged meeting between Muhammad
Atta and an Iraqi intelligence officer in Prague, and confirm that no such
meeting occurred."l67 M6 Report on Postwar Findings About Iraq ’s
WMD Programs and Links to Terrorism and How They Compare With Prewar
Assessments, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Senate Report
109-331, September 8, 2006, 108. 167 CIA, Iraqi Support for Terrorism,
January 2003, as quoted and described in Report on Postwar Findings About
Iraq 's WMD Programs and Links to Terrorism and How They Compare With
Prewar Assessments, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Senate Report
109-331, September 8, 2006. _ 72
page 72
- VIII. Intent • "And containment is not possible when dictators
obtain weapons of mass destruction, and are prepared to share them with
terrorists who intend to inflict catastrophic casualties on the United
States." - Vice President Richard Cheney, Nashville, Tennessee,
August 26, 2002 • "Saddam Hussein’s regime is a grave and
gathering danger. To suggest otherwise is to hope against the evidence. To
assume this regime’s good faith is to bet the lives of millions and the
peace of the world in a reckless gamble." - President George W Bush,
Address to the United Nations General Assembly, September 12, 2002 •
"In cells and camps, terrorists are plotting further destruction, and
building new bases for their war against civilization. And our greatest
fear is that terrorists will frnd a shortcut to their mad ambitions when
an outlaw regime supplies them with the technologies to kill on a massive
scale. In one place — in one regime — we frnd all these dangers, in
their most lethal and aggressive forms, exactly the kind of aggressive
threat the United Nations was born to con’rront." - President
George W Bush, Address to the United Nations General Assembly, September
12, 2002 • "Iraq could decide on any given day to provide a
biological or chemical weapon to a terrorist group or individual
terrorists." - President George W Bush, Cincinnati, Ohio, October 7,
2002 • "Facing clear evidence of peril we cannot wait for the final
proof- the smoking gun — that could come in the form of a mushroom
cloud." - President George W Bush, Cincinnati, Ohio, October 7 2002
• "We could wait and hope that Saddam does not give weapons to
terrorists, or develop a nuclear weapon to blackmail the world. But I’m
convinced that is a hope against all evidence." - President George W
Bush, Cincinnati, Ohio, October 7, 2002 • "With nuclear arms or a
full arsenal of chemical and biological weapons, Saddam Hussein could
resume his ambitions of conquest in the Middle East and create deadly
havoc in that region." - President George W Bush, State of the Union
Address, January 29, 2003 • "Evidence from intelligence sources,
secret communications, and statements by people now in custody reveal that
Saddam Hussein aids and protects terrorists, including members of al-Qaida.
Secretly, and without fingerprints, he could provide one of his hidden
weapons to terrorists, or help them develop their own." - President
George W Bush, State of the Union Address, January 29, 2003 • "Some
believe, some claim these contacts do not add up to much. They say Saddam
Hussein’s secular tyranny and al-Qaida’s religious tyranny do not mix.
I am not comforted by this thought. Ambition and hatred are enough to
bring Iraq and al-Qaida _ 73
page 73
- together, enough so al-Qaida could learn how to build more sophisticated
bombs and learn how to forge documents, and enough so that al Queda could turn to Iraq for help in acquiring expertise on weapons of mass
destruction." - Secretary of State Colin Powell, Address to the
United Nations Security Council, February 5, 2003 • "We know that
Saddam Hussein is determined to keep his weapons of mass destruction, is
determined to make more. Given Saddam Hussein’s history of aggression,
given what we know of his grandiose plans, given what we know of his
terrorist associations, and given his determination to exact revenge on
those who oppose him, should we take the risk that he will not someday use
these weapons at a time and a place and in a manner of his choosing, at a
time when the world is in a much weaker position to respond‘?" -
Secretary of State Colin Powell, Address to the United Nations Security
Council, February 5, 2003
- (U) In major policy speeches the President, the
Vice President and the Secretary of State all discussed Iraq’s
intentions regarding weapons of mass destruction. Both the President and
the Vice President indicated that Saddam Hussein was prepared to share
weapons of mass destruction with terrorist groups. Vice President’s
Speech in Tennessee (August 26, 2002)
- (U) In the Vice President’s August
2002 speech on Iraq, he discussed "the case of Saddam Hussein",
and indicated that Saddam was "prepared to share [weapons of mass
destruction] with terrorists who intend to inflict catastrophic casualties
on the United States."166
- (U) At the time of the Vice President’s
speech, the intelligence community did not assess that Saddam Hussein was
prepared to share weapons of mass destruction with terrorists. The
intelligence community had previously assessed that Saddam was interested
in acquiring WMD to counter his neighbors’ capabilities, deter hostile
foreign powers (including Israel, Iran, and the US—led Coalition) and as
a means of achieving "regional preemir1ence."
- (U) The
intelligence community had also assessed that Saddam was unlikely to take
actions that he believed would threaten the survival of his regime, and
that he believed hostile actions such as a re-invasion of Kuwait would in
fact threaten his regime’s sru·vival.
- (U) There were few recent
coordinated intelligence assessments regarding Saddam Hussein’s
intentions at the time of the Vice President’s speech. In 1998 the
intelligence community had assessed that "Saddam has three primary,
and interrelated, goals: maintaining power, having sanctions lifted as
soon as possible, and, over the long term, reasserting Iraq’s regional
dominance. . .Saddam is committee to seeing Iraq reemerge as the dominant
power in the region: He is determined to retain elements of his WMD
programs so that he will be able to intimidate Iraq’s neighbors and
deter potential adversaries, such as Iran, Israel, and the United
States".169 166 White House Transcript, Vice President Speaks at VFW
103'6 National Convention, August 26, 2002. 169 Intelligence Community
Brief, Iraq: Prospects for Confrontation, July 17, 1998. _ 74
page 74
- (U) In 1999 the intelligence community produced a National Intelligence
Estimate (NIE) entitled Iraqi Military Capabilities through 2003, which
discussed Saddam’s likely perceptions and intentions. In 2004, the
National Intelligence Council informed the SSCI that the views expressed
in the 1999 NIE were "generally held by the IC until well into 2002
with some views carried over into" an October 2002 NIE on Saddam’s
military intentions and capabilities.17°
- (U) Specifically, the 1999 NIE
noted that: (U) Reading Saddam’s intentions is difficult. He can be
impulsive and deceptive; critical factors in shaping his behavior are
largely hidden from us. . .But there are two fundamental guideposts that
drive our calculus of his actions. First, we judge that Saddam would be
careful not to place his regime’s survival at risk. Second, he probably
believes that a re-invasion of Kuwait would provoke a Coalition response
that could threaten to destroy his regime. `
- (U) ...We judge that Saddam
continues to believe that Iraq needs WMD and long-range missiles to: 1)
counter Israeli and Iranian capabilities. . .; 2) deter military attacks,
including by Coalition forces; 3) achieve regional preeminence.171
- (U) A
separate CIA memorandum on this topic, published in December 2001, stated
that "Saddam sees himself as a pan-Arab leader and views his regime
as the most glorious chapter in Iraqi history. . .His decision-making is
guided by opportunism, distrust for others, a personal need for power, and
the sense that he is an historic figure who must take bold risks to
advance Iraq’s interests. He views state power primarily in military
terms — twice launching wars against his neighbors — and his strategic
aim is to establish Iraq as the preeminent power in the Persian Gulf"
President’s Speech to the UN General Assembly (September 12, 2002)
- (U)
In the President’s September 2002 speech to the United Nations General
Assembly, he stated that Saddam Hussein was a "grave and gathering
danger", and that to assume Saddam’s good faith would be tantamount
to betting "the lives of millions and the peace of the world in a
reckless gamble."
- (U) The President also implied that the Iraqi
regime was dangerous because it might provide weapons of mass destruction
to terrorists ("And our greatest fear is that terrorists will find a
shortcut to their mad ambitions when an outlaw regime supplies them with
the technologies to kill on a massive scale. In one place — in one
regime — we find all these dangers .... ").m
- (U) The intelligence
community did not assess that Saddam Hussein dealt with other countries in
good faith, and assessments regarding the potential use of WMD were
not based on 170 Report on the US. Intelligence Community ’s Prewar
Intelligence Assessments on Iraq, Senate Report 108-301, July 9, 2004. m
National Intelligence Estimate, Iraqi Military Capabilities through 2003,
1999. 172 White House Transcript, President’s Remarks at the United
Nations General Assembly, September 12, 2002. _ 75
page 75
- assumptions of good faith. The 1999 NIE on Iraqi military capabilities
noted that it was difficult to gauge Saddam’s intentions, but judged
that he would be careful not to put his regime’s survival at risk.173
-
(U) At the time of the President’s UN speech, the October 2002 NIE was
still being prepared, and was two weeks away from release. While the
document itself was not available at this time, its consistency with the
1999 NIE, and the lack of contradictory assessments in the intervening
four year period, illustrate the continuity of the intelligence community’s
judgments on this topic.
- (U) The October 2002 NIE assessed that
"Saddam’s past actions suggest that a decision to use WMD probably
would come when he feels his personal survival is at stake even after he
has exhausted all political, military and diplomatic options". It
noted that the US would be unlikely to know when Saddam felt that he had
no other options for self-preservation, but pointed out that "Iraq’s
methodical conventional defensive preparations also suggest Saddam thinks
an attack is not immmcmr-."*
- (U) Additionally, the NIE pointed out
that "Iraq’s historical use of CW against Iran and its decision not
to use WMD against Israel or Coalition forces in 1991 indicates that an
opponent’s retaliatory capability is a critical factor in Saddam’s
decisionmal<ing."l75
- (U) The NIE also examined a variety of ways
in which Iraq might conceivably use WMD, and noted that overall "we
have low confidence in our ability to assess when Saddam would use WMD."l76
President’s Speech in Cincinnati (October 7, 2002)
- (U) The President
spoke further on Iraqi intentions during his speech on Iraq in Cincinnati,
where he said that "Iraq could decide on any given day to provide a
biological or chemical weapon to a terrorist group or individual
terrorists." In discussing Iraq’s alleged nuclear program, he
stated that "facing clear evidence of peril we cannot wait for the
final proof- the smoking gun — that could come in the form of a mushroom
cloud." Finally, he concluded that "we could wait and hope that
Saddam does not give weapons to terrorists, or develop a nuclear weapon to
blackmail the world. But I’m convinced that is a hope against all
evidence."m
- (U) While the October 2002 NIE assessed that Iraq
possessed chemical and biological weapons, it judged that Saddam was
unwilling to conduct terrorist attacks targeting the United States at that
time. According to the NIE, "Baghdad for now appears to be drawing a
line short of conducting terrorist attacks with conventional or CBW
against the United States, fearing that exposure of Iraqi involvement
would provide Washington a stronger case for making war."m 173
National Intelligence Estimate, Iraqi Military Capabilities through 2003,
1999. 1;; National Intelligence Estimate, Iraq ’s Continuing Programs
for Weapons of Mass Destruction, October 2002. H6 iii 177 White House
Transcript, President Bush Outlines Iraqi Threat, October 7, 2002. 178
National Intelligence Estimate, Iraq ’s Continuing Programs for Weapons
of Mass Destruction, October 2002. _ 76
-
-
Harold
Rhode
page 76
- (U) The NIE concluded that Iraq would be more likely to conduct a
terrorist-style attack on the US if Saddam perceived that the US could not
be deterred from invading Iraq and destroying his regime. It assessed that
if he made such a decision, Saddam would be most likely to rely on Iraqi
intelligence officers under his command. It considered the possibility of
Saddam employing an outside terrorist group to assist in such an attack,
and concluded that this "extreme step" was conceivable if Saddam
were "sufticiently desperate" and seeking a "last chance to
exact vengeance." The NIE also noted that "although Saddam has
not endorsed al-Qaida’s overall agenda and has been suspicious of
Islamist movements in general, apparently he has not been averse to some
contacts with the organization." The NIE stated that the intelligence
community had low confidence in its own ability to assess when Saddam
might use WMD and whether he would engage in clandestine attacks on the US
homeland}79
- (U) As discussed elsewhere in this report, in October 2002
most intelligence agencies assessed that Iraq was reconstituting a nuclear
weapons program. The State Department’s Office of Intelligence and
Research (State/INR) believed that Saddam Hussein wanted to possess
nuclear weapons, and was maintaining some capabilities with dual uses, but
judged that the available evidence did "not add up to a compelling
case for reconstitution."18° President’s State of the Union
Address (January 29, 2003)
- (U) In the President’s 2003 State of the
Union Address, he said that Saddam Hussein "could provide one of his
hidden weapons to terrorists, or help them develop their own." He
also stated that Saddam had "ambitions of conquest in the Middle
East" that he could resume if he had "nuclear arms or a full
arsenal of chemical and biological weapons".l8l
- (U) As discussed, the
October 2002 NIE judged that Saddam Hussein was unwilling to conduct
terrorist attacks targeting the United States at that time. More
generally, it suggested that Saddam would probably decide to use WMD only
if he felt he had no other options for survival and that "an opponent’s
retaliatory capability" would be a key factor in making this
decision}82
- (U) A November 2002 NIE on nontraditional threats restated the
October NIE’s assessment about Saddam’s willingness, if
"suff1ciently desperate" to employ an outside terrorist group to
conduct an attack on the US as his "last chance for vengeance."
This NIE included the caveats U *79 mid. 180 Ibid. As discussed in a
previous Committee report (Senate Report 109-331) the Director of Central
Intelligence also released a public statement regarding the President’s
speech. This statement did not specifically address the possibility of
Saddam providing WMD to terrorists, but said "There is no
inconsistency between our view of Saddam’s growing threat and the view
as expressed by the President in his speech. Although we think the chances
of Saddam initializing a WMD attack are low — in part because it would
constitute an admission that the [sic] possesses WMD — there is no
question that the likelihood of Saddam using WMD against the United States
or our allies in the region grows as his arsenal continues to build."
I; E/hiite House Transcript, President Delivers "State of the Union
", January 28, 2003. 1 . _ 77
page 77
- that the intelligence community had low confidence in these
assessments, and that "IN`R believes that the intelligence community
has no reporting to support this assertion."183
- (U) The October 2002
NIE’s conclusions were essentially repeated again in a January 2003
Intelligence Community Assessment which said that "Saddam probably
will not initiate hostilities for fear of providing Washington with
justification to invade Iraq. Nevertheless, he might deal the first blow,
especially if he perceives that an attack intended to end his regime is '
inent."184
- (U) Neither of these reports specifically focused on what
Saddam might do if he had nuclear weapons or a "full arsenal" of
chemical and biological weapons, possibly because the intelligence
community believed that Iraq was still years away from possessing either
of these. Secretary of State ’s Address to the UN Security Council
(February 5, 2003)
- (U) In the Secretary of State’s February 2003 address
to the United Nations Security Council, he stated that "arnbition and
hatred are enough to bring Iraq and al-Qaida together", and that
"al Qaida could turn to Iraq for help in acquiring expertise on
weapons of mass destruction."185
- (U) The intelligence community did
not assess that Iraq and al Qaida had a cooperative relationship. In
June 2002 the CIA wrote that "in contrast to the traditional patron—client
relationship Iraq enjoys with secular Palestinian groups, the ties between
Saddam and bin Laden appear much like those between rival intelligence
services, with each trying to exploit the other for its own benefit."186
While there was evidence of limited contacts throughout the 1990s, the CIA
did not assess that these contacts added up to an established, cooperative
relationship. In a January 2003 report the CIA noted that the Iraqi regime
and al-Qaida shared mutual enemies, and that several reports of varying
reliability mentioned "the involvement of Iraq or Iraqi nationals in
al-Qaida’s efforts to obtain CBW [chemical and biological weapons]
training. However, the same report also assessed that "Saddam Husayn
and Usama bin Laden are far from being natural partners", and stated
that while there was little specific intelligence about Saddam’s opinion
of al-Qaida, "his record suggests that any such ties would be rooted
in deep suspicion."187
- (U) The Committee is also aware of
intelligence provided directly to the Secretary by the CIA which echoed
these assessments.
- (U) As discussed, the October 2002 NIE assessed that
Saddam Hussein was unwilling to provide weapons of mass destruction to
terrorist groups at that time, because he did not want to put his 183
National Intelligence Estimate, Nontraditional Threats t0 the US Homeland
Through 2007, November 2002 H4 Intelligence Community Assessment, Key
Warnings for 2003, January 2003. 185 White House Transcript, US. Secretary
of State Colin Powell Addresses the UN Security Council, February 5, 2003.
186 CIA, Iraq and al-Qa’ida: Interpreting a Murky Relationship, June
21, 2002. H7 CIA, Iraqi Support for Terrorism, January 29, 2003. The Iraqi
regime’s possible links to terrorist groups are discussed in the
Terrorism section of this report. _ 78
page 78
- regime’s survival at risk. It noted that information on possible
training of terrorists was "second hand, or from sources of varying
reliability."188 Additional Statements • "And as I have said
repeatedly, Saddam Hussein would like nothing more than to use a terrorist
network to attack and to kill and leave no fingerprints behind." —
President George W Bush, Remarks with British Prime Minister Tony
Blair,
January 31, 2003 • "Every world leader that comes to see me, I
explain our concerns about a nation which is not conforming to agreements
that it made in the past; a nation which has gassed her people in the
past; a nation which has weapons of mass destruction and apparently is not
afraid to use them." — President George W Bush, Press Conference,
March 13, 2002 • "Simply stated, there is no doubt that Saddam
Hussein now has weapons of mass destruction. There is no doubt that he is
amassing them to use them against our friends, against our allies and
against us. And there is no doubt that his aggressive regional ambitions
will lead him into future confrontations with his neighbors;
confrontations that will involve both the weapons that he has today and
the ones he will continue to develop with his oil wealth." — Vice
President Dick Cheney, Statement before the Veterans of the Korean War,
San Antonio, Texas, August, 29, 2002 • "But we should be just as
concerned about the immediate threat from biological weapons. Iraq has
these weapons. They’re simpler to deliver and even more readily
transferred to terrorist networks, who could allow Iraq to deliver them
without Iraq’s fingerprints." — Secretary of Defense Donald
Rumsfeld, Testimony before the HASC September 18, 2002 • "There are
a number of terrorist states pursuing weapons of mass destruction -- Iran,
Libya, North Korea, Syria to name but a few. But no terrorist state poses
a greater or more immediate threat to the security of our people and the
stability of the world than the regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq."
— Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Testimony before the House Armed
Services Committee, September 18, 2002 • "We do know that the Iraqi
regime currently has chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction,
and we do know they’re currently pursuing nuclear weapons, that they
have a proven willingness to use those weapons at their disposal and that
they’ve proven an aspiration to seize the territory of and threaten
their neighbors, proven support for and cooperation with terrorist
networks and proven record of declared hostility and venomous rhetoric
against the United States. Those threats should be clear to all." —
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Testimony before the House Armed
Services Committee, September 18, 2002 188 National Intelligence Estimate,
Iraq ’s Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction, October
2002. _ 79
page 79
- _ • "He’s hostile to our country. Because we have denied him
the ability he has fought to impose his will on his neighbors, he has said
in no uncertain terms that he would use weapons of mass destruction
against the United States. He has at this moment stockpiles of chemical
and biological weapons." — Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld,
Testimony before the 1:L4SC, September 18, 2002 • "There are ways
Iraq can easily conceal responsibility for a WMD attack. For example, they
could give biological weapons to terrorist networks to attack the United
States from within and then deny any knowledge. Suicide bombers are not
deterrable." — Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Testimony
before the House Armed Services Committee, September 18, 2002 •
"Moreover, if he decided it was in his interest to conceal his
responsibility for an attack on the U.S., providing WMD to terrorists
would be an effective way of doing so." — Secretary of Defense
Donald Rumsfeld, Testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee,
September 19, 2002 • "We now see that a proven menace like Saddam
Hussein, in possession of weapons of mass destruction, could empower a few
terrorists to threaten millions of innocent people." — Secretary of
State Colin Powell, Testimony before the House Committee on International
Relations, September 19, 2002 • "Every month that goes by, his WMD
programs are progressing and he moves closer to his goal of possessing the
capability to strike our population, and our allies, and hold them hostage
to blackmail." - Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Prepared
Testimony before the SASCZ September 19, 2002 • "Al Qa’ ida
hides, Saddam doesn’t, but the danger is, is that they work in concert.
The danger is, is that al Qa’ida becomes an extension of Sadda1n’s
madness and his hatred and his capacity to extend weapons of mass
destruction around the world...[Y]ou can’t distinguish between al Qa’ida
and Saddam when you talk about the war on terror." — President
George W Bush, Remarks with Columbian President Uribe, September 25, 2002
• "Each passing day could be the one on which the Iraqi regime
gives anthrax or VX -- nerve gas -- or some day a nuclear weapon to a
terrorist ally." —- President George W Bush, Remarks in the Rose
Garden with Congressional Leaders, September 26, 2002 • "We know
that the Iraqi regime is led by a dangerous and brutal man. We know he is
actively seeking the destructive technologies to match his hatred. And we
know that he must be stopped. The dangers we face will only worsen from
month to month and year to year. To ignore these threats is to encourage
them -— and when they have fully materialized, it may be too late to
protect ourselves and our allies. By then, the Iraqi dictator will have
had the means to terrorize and dominate the region, and each passing day
could be the one on which the Iraqi regime gives anthrax or VX nerve gas
or 80
page 80
- _ someday a nuclear weapon to a terrorist group." — President
George W Bush, Radio Address, September 28, 2002 • "The danger to
America from the Iraqi regime is grave and growing. The regime is guilty
of beginning two wars. It has a horrible history of striking without
warning. In deiiance of pledges to the United Nations, Iraq has stockpiled
biological and chemical weapons and is rebuilding the facilities used to
make more of those weapons. Saddam Hussein has used these weapons of death
against innocent Iraqi people, and we have every reason to believe he will
use them again. Iraq has longstanding ties to terrorist groups which are
capable of, and willing to, deliver weapons of mass death." —
President George W Bush, Radio Address, October 5, 2002 • "Indeed,
the more time passes the more time Saddam Hussein has to develop his
deadly weapor1s and to acquire more. The more time he has to plant sleeper
agents in the United States and other friendly countries or to supply
deadly weapons to terrorists he can then disown, the greater the danger.
The notion that we can wait until the threat is imminent assumes that we
will know when it is imminent." — Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul
Wolfowitz, Remarks at Fletcher Conference, October 16, 2002 •
"After September the llth, we’ve entered into a new era and a new
war. This is a man that we know has had connections with al Qa’ida. This
is a man who, in my judgment, would like to use al Qa’ida as a forward
anny." — President George W Bush, Remarks in Dearborn, Michigan,
October 14, 2002 • "His regime has had high-level contacts with al
Qa’ida going back a decade and has provided training to al Qa’ida
terrorists. And as the President has said, ‘Iraq could decide on any
given day to provide biological or chemical weapons to a terrorist group
or to individual terrorists’ -- which is why the war on terror will not
be won till Iraq is completely and verifiably deprived of weapons of mass
destruction." — Woe President Dick Cheney, Remarks at the Air
National Guard Conference, December 2, 2002 • "He has weapons of
mass destruction, the world’s deadliest weapons, which pose a direct
threat to the United States, our citizens and our friends and
allies." — President George W Bush, Remarks with Economists,
January 21, 2003 • "The more we wait, the more chance there is for
this dictator with clear ties to terrorist groups, including Al-Qaida,
more time for him to pass a weapon, share a technology, or use these
weapons again." — Secretary of State Colin Powell, remarks at the
World Economic Forum, January 26 2003 • "Saddam Hussein’s pursuit
of weapons of mass destruction poses a grave danger —· not only to his
neighbors, but also to the United States. His regime aids and protects
terrorists, including members of al Qa’ida. He could decide secretly to
provide weapons of mass destruction to terrorists for use against us. And
as the President said on Tuesday night, it would take just one vial, one
canister, one crate to bring a day of horror to our 81
page 81
- nation unlike any we have ever known." —
Vice President Dick
Cheney, Remarks to the Conservative PAC January 30, 2003 • "I
believe Saddam Hussein is a threat to the American people. I believe he’s
a threat to the neighborhood in which he lives. And I’ve got a good
evidence to believe that. He has weapons of mass destruction, and he has
used weapons of mass destruction in his neighborhood and on his own
people. He’s invaded countries in his neighborhood. He tortures his own
people. He’s a murderer. He has trained and financed A1 Qaida-type
organizations before -- A1 Qaida and other terrorist organizations."
— President George W Bush, News Confrence, March 6, 2003 • "[The
Iraqi regime] has a deep hatred of America and our friends. And [Iraq] has
aided, trained and harbored terrorists, including operatives of al Qa’ida.
The danger is clear: using chemical, biological or, one day, nuclear
weapons obtained with the help of Iraq, the terrorists could fulfill their
stated ambitions and kill thousands or hundreds of thousands of innocent
people in our country or any other." — President George W Bush,
Address to the Nation, March 1 7, 2003
- (U) The above statements are all
consistent with the five policy speeches analyzed. Conclusions (
- (U)
Conclusion 15: Statements by the President and the Vice President
indicating that Saddam Hussein was prepared to give weapons of mass
destruction to terrorist groups for attacks against the United States were
contradicted by available intelligence information. The October 2002
National Intelligence Estimate assessed that Saddam Hussein did not have
nuclear weapons, and was unwilling to conduct terrorist attacks the US
using conventional, chemical or biological weapons at that time, in part
because he feared that doing so would give the US a stronger case for war
with Iraq. This judgment was echoed by both earlier and later intelligence
community assessments. All of these assessments noted that gauging Saddam’s
intentions was quite difficult, and most suggested that he would be more
likely to initiate hostilities if he felt that a US invasion was imminent.
Postwar Findings (U) Postwar findings indicate that Saddam Hussein was
distrustful of al-Qaida and viewed Islamic extremists as a threat to his
regime, and refused all requests from al-Qaida to provide material or
operational support. No postwar information indicates that Saddam ever
considered using any terrorist group to attack the United States. (U) In
2004, the Iraq Survey Group concluded that Saddam had aspired to rebuild
weapons of mass destruction capabilities if and when international
sanctions ended, but that the Iraqi regime had no strategy or plan for the
eventual revival of such capabilities. _ 82
page 82
- (U) The Iraq Survey Group also concluded that Saddam and his advisors
had judged that a US invasion was the greatest potential threat to regime
survival, but that Saddam believed that such an invasion was very
unlikely. According to the Survey Group’s findings, Saddam’s military
policies were based primarily on his desire to deter neighboring countries
— particularly Iran — from taking direct military action against him.
189 189 Report on Postwar Findings About Iraq 's WMD Programs and
Links to Terrorism and How Hey Compare With Prewar Assessments, Senate
Select Committee on Intelligence, Senate Report 109-331, September 8,
2006. _ 83
page 83
- _ IX. Post-War Iraq • "Regime change in Iraq would bring about a
number of benefits to the region. When the gravest of threats are
eliminated, the freedom-loving peoples of the region will have a chance to
promote the values that can bring lasting peace. As for the reaction of
the Arab ‘street,’ the Middle East expert Professor Fouad Ajami
predicts that after liberation, the streets in Basra and Baghdad are ‘sure
to erupt in joy in the same way the throngs in Kabul greeted the
Americans.’ - Vice President Richard Cheney, Nashville, Tennessee, August
26, 2002 • "With our help, a liberated Iraq can be a great nation
once again. Iraq is rich in natural resources and human talent, and has
unlimited potential for a peaceful, prosperous future. Our goal would be
an Iraq that has territorial integrity, a government that is democratic
and pluralistic, a nation where the human rights of every ethnic and
religious group are recognized and protected. In that troubled land all
who seek justice, and dignity, and the chance to live their own lives, can
know they have a friend and ally in the United States of America." -
Vice President Richard Cheney, Nashville, Tennessee, August 26, 2002 •
"The lives of Iraqi citizens would improve dramatically if Saddam
Hussein were no longer in power, just as the lives of Afghanistan’s
citizens improved after the Taliban." - President George W Bush,
Cincinnati, Ohio, October 7, 2002 • "Iraq is a land rich in
culture, resources, and talent. Free from the weight of oppression, Iraq’s
people will be able to share in the progress and prosperity of our time.
If military action is necessary, the United States and our allies will
help the Iraqi people rebuild their economy, and create the institutions
of liberty in a unified Iraq at peace with its neighbors.” - President
George W Bush, Cincinnati, Ohio, October 7, 2002 Intelligence
- (U) The
Committee summarized and analyzed the intelligence products written
between April 19, 1999 and the initiation of Operation Iraqi Freedom on
March 19, 2003 in its previous report, Prewar Intelligence Assessments
About Postwar Iraq. 190 The Committee received dozens of all- source
intelligence reports as part of this review. As described in that report,
two Intelligence Community Assessments (ICAs) provided the best snapshots
of the IC’s views on postwar Iraq. Both were produced in January 2003,
and thus are not applicable in determining whether statements made in
August and October of 2002 were substantiated by the intelligence
information.
- (U) The Defense Intelligence Agency produced two briefing
presentations in April 2002 that discussed the challenges that could arise
for US military and coalition forces in the Phase IV post-combat phase of
the war plan for Iraq.l9l The Erst DIA briefing assessed that the Iraqi
190 Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Prewar Intelligence
Assessments About Postwar Iraq, May 31, 2007. An unclassified copy of this
report can be found at http://intelligence.senate.gov/prewar.pdf 191 DIA,
Knowledge of Iraqi Society: Policymaker Need for Insight and Looking at
Post-Saddam Iraq, April 2002. 84
page 84
- _ Baath Party "will attempt to return by any means necessa.ry"
that "large portions of the population will remain intirnidated,"
and that the "Iraqi populace will adopt an ambivalent attitude toward
liberation." The briefing also assessed that "Significant force
protection threats will emerge from the Baathists, the Jihadists and Arab
nationalists who oppose any US occupation of Iraq."192
- (U) The second
DIA briefing noted that "managing rivalries will be a major challenge
to the new regime." DIA assessed that most seams and fissures will
remain, but should be manageable and noted that most rivalries are
intra-communal, not between ethnic or religious groups." It also
outlined that potential post-war challenges that included,
"preventing Kurdish separation, eradicating terrorists in Ansar area,
managing inter-ethnic/tribal violence, gaining control of the regime’s
geographic power base, and accounting for WMD."193
- (U) In August
2002, the CIA produced a report, Can Iraq Ever Become A Democracy? , at
the request of the National Security Council. In the report’s scope
note, the CIA stated that: "This assessment fully accepts that
traditional Iraqi political culture has been inhospitable to democracy.
Nevertheless, we feel it is appropriate to explore, in a necessarily
initial and speculative fashion, to what extent post-Saddam Iraq might
possess some democratic building blocks, and under what circumstances
these blocks might be used to construct a democratic government in post-Saddarn
Iraq."194
- (U) The report stated that, "On the surface, Iraq
currently appears to lack both the socio- economic and politico—cultural
prerequisites that political scientists generally regard as necessary to
nurture democracy. Nevertheless, we believe that Iraq has several
advantages that, if buttressed by the West, could foster democracy in
post-Saddam Iraq."195 The advantages cited I by the report included
the return of exiled elites, a weak tradition of political Islam, near-
universal revulsion against Saddarn’s dictatorship, and economic
resources. The report emphasized that "None of these factors should
be seen as minimizing the obstacles to democratization in Iraq after
Saddam."196
- (U) The CIA also pointed to Iraqi Kurdistan as a
potential model for democratic development in the rest of Iraq. The report
noted, for example, that "Iraqi Kurdistan has become one of the more
democratic regions in the Middle East. In 1991 it was as badly off—both
economically and from the viewpoint of political culture and history—as
the rest of Iraq would likely be should Saddam be defeated."197
- (U)
The report noted such "words of caution" as "we are
uncertain how rapidly Iraq. .. can recover from the massive socio-economic
and political damage inflicted by Saddam, especially since 1991 ."
The report assessed that without "long-term, active US/Western
military, political, *9* ibid *99 ibid 194 CIA, Can Iraq Ever Become a
Dem0cracy?, August 8, 2002, pp. i - iv. *99 1b1d,p. *99 1b1d,p. 111 *9*
ibid, p. 1 85
page 85
- and economic involvement with the country" the chance of achieving
even "the partial democratic successes of, for example, Iraqi
Kurdistan to be poor." 19
- (U) The report assessed that, "In
theory, Iraq should be better placed than its current dire economic
statistics and dictatorial government suggest to recuperate lost ground and
forge a more modern society once Saddam is toppled. It is also possible,
however, that Saddam’s rule has damaged the Iraqi body politic and set
back Iraqi socio-economic development in more severe ways that will
require many more years to overcome. We simply cannot know until the
dictator is gone." 199
- (U) The CIA wrote a second August 2002
intelligence assessment in response to tasking by the National Security
Council. This report, The Perfect Storm: Planning for Negative
Consequences of Invading Iraq, was intended to set forth worst—case
scenarios that might emerge from US-led regime change in Iraq. The scope
note stated that the "spirit of the paper reaches beyond what we
normally would assess as plausible" and that the report was intended
to "look at a number of situations that, when taken separately or
together, could complicate US efforts in a campaign against Iraq."
The negative consequences highlighted in the paper were: anarchy and
territorial breakup in Iraq; instability in key Arab states; a surge of
global terrorism and deepening Islamic antipathy toward the United States;
major oil supply disruptions; and severe strains in the Atlantic alliance.
-
(U) In October 2002, the National Intelligence Council published a
National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), entitled Saddam ’s Preparations
for War: Intentions and Capabilities.2°° While not the central focus of
the NIE, it did note that ". . .US and Coalition forces will face
enormous requirements to meet the humanitarian needs of Iraqi civilians.
If Saddam adopted a scorched earth policy — and some intelligence
reporting suggests he will- advancing forces will be confronted with
large-scale destruction of oil and power facilities, the contamination of
food supplies and other potential environmental devastation."2°1
Additional Statements • "Now, I think things have gotten so bad
inside Iraq, from the standpoint of the Iraqi people, my belief is we
will, in fact, be greeted as liberators." - Vice President Richard
Cheney, Meet the Press, March I 6, 2003. • MR. RUSSERT: If your analysis
is not correct, and we’re not treated as liberators, but as conquerors,
and the Iraqis begin to resist, particularly in Baghdad, do you think the
American people are prepared for a long, costly, and bloody battle with
significant American casualties? VICE PRESIDENT CHENEY: Well, I don’t
think it’s likely to unfold that way, Tim, because I really do believe
that we will be greeted as liberators. - Vice President Richard Cheney,
Meet the Press, March I 6, 2003. 198 Ibid, pp. i - iv. 199 CIA, Can Iraq
Ever Become a Democracy?, August 8, 2002, pp. i- iv. 200 NIC, Saddam ’s
Preparations for War: Intentions and Capabilities, October 2002, p i 201
NIC, Saddam ’s Preparations for War: Intentions and Capabilities,
October 2002, p i _ 86
page 86
- • MR. RUSSERT: Every analysis said this war itself would cost about
$80 billion, recovery of Baghdad, perhaps of Iraq, about $10 billion per
year. We should expect as American citizens that this would cost at least
$100 billion for a two-year involvement. VICE PRESIDENT CHENEY: I can’t
say that, Tim. There are estimates out there. It’s important, though, to
recognize that we’ve got a different set of circumstances than we’ve
had in Afghanistan. . .. In Iraq you’ve got a nation that’s got the
second-largest oil reserves in the world, second only to Saudi Arabia. It
will generate billions of dollars a year in cash flow if they get back to
their production of roughly three million barrels of oil a day, in the
relatively near future. - Vice President Richard Cheney, Meet the Press,
March I 6, 2003. • ". .. The point is this is not a nation without
resources, and when it comes time to rebuild and to make the kinds of
investments that are going to be required to give them a shot at achieving
a truly representative government, a successful government, a government
that
can defend itself and protect its territorial integrity and look to the
interests of its people, Iraq starts with significant advantages. It’s
got a well-trained middle class, a highly literate work force, a high
degree of technical sophistication. This is a country that I think, but
for the rule of Saddam Hussein and his brutality and his diversion of the
nation’s resources and his pursuit of weapons of mass destruction, can
be one of the leading, perhaps the leading state in that part of the
world in terms of developing a modem state and the kind of lifestyle that
its people are entitled to." - Vice President Richard Cheney, Meet
the Press, March I 6, 2003. • MR. RUSSERT: And you are convinced the
Kurds, the Sunnis, the Shiites will come together in a democracy? VICE
PRESIDENT CHENEY: They have so far. One of the things that many people
forget is that the Kurds in the north have been operating now for over 10
years under a sort of U.S.—provided umbrella with respect to the no-ily
zone, and they have established a very strong, viable society with
elements of democracy and important part of it. . .. - Vice President
Richard Cheney, Meet the Press, March I 6, 2003. • ". .. I think
the prospects of being able to achieve this kind of success, if you will,
from a political standpoint, are better than they would be for virtually
any other country in under similar circumstances in that part of the
world." - Vice President Richard Cheney, Meet the Press, March I 6,
2003.
- (U) These statements were made roughly five months later than the
statements in the major I speeches described above, and the intelligence
community had written several intelligence products in the intervening
period. In particular, the National Intelligence Council had produced two
coordinated Intelligence Community Assessments (ICAs) in January 2003 as
described above. A redacted copy of both reports can be found as
appendices in the Committee’s report, Prewar Intelligence Assessments
About Postwar Iraq.
- (U) In the first ICA, entitled Regional Consequences
of Regime Change in Iraq, the Intelligence Community analyzed the
"most important political, economic, and social consequences of _ 87
page 87
-
- regime change in Iraq .... "202 The second ICA, Principal
Challenges in P0st—Saddam Iraq, examined "the internal dynamics of
Iraq that will frame the challenges for whatever government succeeds the
regime of Saddam Hussein."203
- (U) The two lCA’s did not directly
assess whether U.S. personnel would be "greeted as liberators,"
but did address underlying factors that would likely shape Iraqi’s
views. The Committee’s May 2007 summarized the assessments in the two
January 2003 reports. These prewar assessments were that: • Establishing
a stable democratic government in postwar Iraq would be a long, difficult
and probably turbulent challenge. • Iraq was a deeply divided society
that likely would engage in violent conflict unless an occupying power
prevented it. • The Iraqi government would have to walk a fine line
between dismantling the worst aspects of Saddam’s police, security, and
intelligence forces and retaining the capability to enforce nationwide
peace. • Iraq’s large petroleum resources would make economic
reconstruction a less difficult challenge than political transformation,
but that postwar Iraq would nonetheless face significant economic
challenges. • The new Iraqi government would require significant outside
assistance to rebuild Iraq’s water and sanitation infrastructure.
Conclusions
- (U) Conclusion 16: Statements by President Bush and Vice
President Cheney regarding the postwar situation in Iraq, in terms of the
political, security, and economic, did not reflect the concerns and
uncertainties expressed in the intelligence products. There were
relatively few intelligence products on this subject prior to January
2003, and senior policymakers did not request them. The Committee
recognizes that there were many other sources of information available to
policymakers that would inform their views about post-war Iraq. The
Committee did not explore these other sources as it is beyond the scope of
this report. 202 National Intelligence Council, Regional Consequences of
Regime Change in Iraq, January 2003. 203 National Intelligence Council,
Princzpal Challenges in P0st-Saddam Iraq, January 2003. 88
page 88
- ADDITIONAL Views or Chairman John D.
Rockefeller IV On April 1,
2008, the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence approved on a bipartisan
vote of l0-5 the remaining two reports of its investigation into pre-war
intelligence on Iraq and related matters. The first Committee report
evaluates whether the public statements of senior United States government
officials
leading up to the war were substantiated by underlying intelligence
information. The second report, building on previous work done by the
Committee and the Department of Defense (DoD) inspector General, further
details the intelligence activities of Defense Department policy officials
conducted outside the Intelligence Community. These two reports are part
of a second phase of the Iraq investigation authorized unanimously by the
Committee on February 12, 2004. in undertaking these additional lines of
inquiry, the Committee acted to tell the complete story of how
intelligence was not only collected and analyzed prior to the Iraq
invasion but how it was publicly used in authoritative statements made by
the highest officials of the Bush Administration in furtherance of its
policy to overthrow Saddam Hussein. For three years, the Committee’s
investigative mandate foundered. Under the direction of the then-majority,
the Committee failed to show the same disciplined and objective oversight
it demonstrated in producing its July 2004 report on the Intelligence
Community’s pre-war intelligence assessments on Iraq. Committee Chairman
Pat Roberts halted the investigation on the intelligence activities of the
Defense Department officials and farmed out the work to the DoD inspector
General in November 2005. The public statements section of the
investigation was slow-walked and a draii report was never presented to
the Committee membership prior to the change in the Senate majority in
2007, evidently a task too politically sensitive to handle. Upon assuming
the Committee chairmanship, I directed that work be restarted on the
remaining sections of the investigation (another report on pre-war
assessments on post-war Iraq was approved by the Committee and released in
May 2007). Soon thereafter, on February 9, 2007, the DoD inspector General
issued its own report reviewing the activities of DoD policy officials
prior to the war. The Inspector General’s report, based on extensive
interviews and a thorough review of documents, concluded that the policy
office in the Pentagon had expanded its role and mission from formulating
policy and had inappropriately disseminated an alternative analysis
drawing a link between Iraq and the al-Qaeda terrorists who carried out
the attacks on September llth that the Intelligence Community was unable
to substantiate. The Committee uncovered this attempt by DoD policy
officials to shape and politicize intelligence in order to bolster the
Administration’s policy of invasion in its July 2004 report. After the
release of the February 2007 DoD inspector General report, Vice Chairman
Christopher "Kit" Bond wrote me urging that the Committee not
finish the investigation of the Pentagon policy office it officially
authorized three years earlier. As a concession to the Vice Chairman’s
request, I agreed to not revisit the same events examined in the inspector
General 89
page 89
- report, but rather to restart a portion of the Committee’s
suspended Pentagon investigation unexamined by the Inspector General:
clandestine meetings in Rome and Paris between DoD policy officials and
Iranians in 2001 and 2003, facilitated by Manucher Ghorbanifar, the
Iranian exile and fabricator implicated in the 1986 Iran—Contra scandal,
in which intelligence was collected but kept from the Intelligence
Community. The Committee began examining the circumstances surrounding
these meetings in 2003 based on an agreement between Chairman Roberts and
me (serving then as Vice Chairman) pursuant to the original terms of
reference of the Committee’s investigation. We agreed at the time that
while these meetings concerned Iran and not Iraq, it was important
nevertheless to fully understand how the meetings came to be, what was
discussed and proffered at them, and why they were not handled in normal
diplomatic or intelligence channels. These were matters of fundamental,
statutorily-mandated congressional oversight that the Committee was not at
liberty to ignore. The resulting report is based on interviews of numerous
Administration officials, including those Pentagon officials attending the
Rome and Paris meetings, and a careful examination of hundreds of pages of
documentation, including cable traffic, meeting notes, and an internal DoD
review concerning the propriety of the meetings. Whereas the Committee’s
2004 report presented evidence that the DoD policy office attempted to
shape the CIA’s terrorism analysis in late 2002 and, when it failed,
prepared an altemative intelligence analysis denigrating the CIA for not
embracing a link between Iraq and the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the most
recent report shows that the rogue actions of the office were not
isolated. The Committee’s findings paint a disturbing picture of
Pentagon policy officials who were distrustful of the Intelligence
Community and undertook the collection of sensitive intelligence without
coordinating their activities or reporting the information they collected
through proper channels. The actions of DoD officials to blindly disregard
the red flags over the role played by Mr. Ghorbanifar in these meetings
and to wall—off the Intelligence Community from its activities and the
information it obtained were improper and demonstrated a fundamental
disdain for the Intelligence Community’s role in vetting sensitive
sources. In preparing its report on public statements made by U.S.
government officials prior to the war, the Committee decided to
concentrate its analysis on those statements that were central to the
debate in 2002-2003 over the decision to go to war. The Committee
identified five major policy speeches made by President George W. Bush,
Vice President Richard Cheney, and Secretary of State Colin Powell during
this period as the most significant expressions of how the Bush
Administration communicated intelligence judgments to the American people,
the United States Congress, and the international community. Additional
statements made by senior Administration officials during this time frame
containing assertions not included in the five major policy speeches were
examined as well. _ 90
page 90
- The Committee decided not to consider public statements made prior to
the summer of 2002 in its review or those made by lower level Executive
Branch officials. They were not deemed to be as central to the lead-up to
war in Iraq. Statements made by members of Congress also were not
evaluated. A bipartisan majority of the Committee agreed that these
statements do not carry the same weight of authority as statements made by
the President and others in the Executive Branch who are charged with
representing the views of the U.S. government in a State of the Union
Address viewed by 50 million Americans or in a speech before the United
Nations. In addition, members of Congress did not have the same ready
access to intelligence as senior Executive Branch policymakers. As the
Committee’s 2004 Iraq report highlights, it took requests by members of
the Committee to the Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet in
September 2002 for the Intelligence Community to produce its National
Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction
programs. The hastily produced NIE was not published until October 2002,
mere days before Congress was scheduled to vote on the resolution to
authorize the use of force in Iraq. By this time, the Administration had
made repeated public assertions regarding Iraq’s weapons of mass
destruction and links to terrorism as a predicate for the pre-emptive use
of military force that would soon follow. The Committee carefully examined
these public statements against the intelligence products distributed by
the Intelligence Community at the time of the statement. The report’s
conclusions highlight which statements were substantiated by the
intelligence reporting and which statements were not. The Committee’s
findings are fair and objective. In those instances where a statement is
not substantiated by the intelligence, the Committee renders no judgment
as to why. As the report details, Administration statements prior to the
war often reflected the reporting of the Intelligence Community, even when
the judgments underlying the reporting were based on flawed analysis or
false information. However, senior Administration officials repeatedly
spoke in declarative and unequivocal terms about Iraq’s weapons of mass
destruction programs and support for terrorists. These declarative
statements were not substantiated. In the push to rally public support for
the invasion of Iraq, Administration officials often failed to accurately
portray what was known, what was not known, and what was suspected about
Iraq and the threat it represented to our national security. The report
documents significant instances in which the Administration went beyond
what the Intelligence Community knew or believed in making public claims,
most notably on the V false assertion that Iraq and al-Qaeda had an
operational partnership and joint involvement in carrying out the attacks
of September llth. The President and his advisors undertook a relentless
public campaign in the aftermath of the attacks to use the war against al-Qaida
as a justification for overthrowing Saddam Hussein. Representing to the
American people that the two had an operational partnership and posed a
single, indistinguishable threat was fundamentally misleading and led the
Nation to war on false premises. The Committee also found instances where
a public statement selectively used that intelligence information which
supported a particular policy viewpoint while ignoring 91
page 91
- contradictory information that weakened the position. While on its
face, a statement may have been accurate, it nevertheless presented a
slanted picture to those who were unaware of the hidden intelligence. The
Administration’s misuse of intelligence prior to the war was aided by
the selective declassification of intelligence reporting. The Executive
Branch historically exercises the prerogative to classify information in
order to protect national security and, unlike Congress, it can declassify
information unilaterally and with ease. The Administration exploited this
declassification authority in the lead up to the war and disclosed
intelligence at a time and in a manner of its choosing with impunity,
knowing that others attempting to disclose additional details that might
provide balance or improve accuracy would be prevented from doing so under
the threat of prosecution. This unlevel playing field allowed senior
officials to disclose and discuss sensitive intelligence reports when it
supported the Administration’s policy objectives and keep out of the
public discourse information which did not. The canon of the Committee’s
Iraq investigation - a series of six reports issued over a four-year
period — demonstrates why congressional oversight is essential in
evaluating America’s intelligence collection and analytic activities.
During the course of its investigation, the Committee uncovered that the
October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq’s alleged weapons of
mass destruction was based on stale, fragmentary, and speculative
intelligence reports and replete with unsupported judgments. Troubling
incidents were reported in which internal dissent and warnings about the
veracity of intelligence on Iraq were ignored in the rush to war. The
Committee’s investigation also revealed how the Administration
policymakers applied pressure on intelligence analysts prior to the war to
support a link between Iraq and those terrorists responsible for the
attacks of September llth that did not exist. Our investigation detailed
how the Iraqi National Congress attempted to influence United States
policy on Iraq by providing false information through defectors directed
at convincing the United States that Iraq possessed weapons of mass
destruction and had links to terrorists, and how this false information
was embraced despite warnings of fabrication. The Committee’s
investigation also documented for the public how the Administration
ignored the pre-war judgments of the Intelligence Community that the
invasion of Iraq would destabilize security in-country and provide al-Qaida
with an opportunity to exploit the situation and increase attacks against
United States forces during and after the war. After tive years and the
loss of over 4,000 American lives, these ignored judgments were tragically
prescient. Overall, the findings and conclusions of the Committee’s Iraq
investigation were an important catalyst in bringing about subsequent
legislative and administrative reforms of the Intelligence Community
designed to learn from these painful lessons of the past. Finally, I am
disappointed that Vice Chairman Bond was unable to support the issuance of
these two remaining reports. From when the initial drafts of both reports
were presented to 92
page 92
- Committee members on January 15, 2008, to their adoption two and a half
months later, every effort was made to accommodate changes proposed by all
members. In the end, the Vice Chairman was the only Committee member to
file amendments seeking further revision to the report. Of the over 170
amendments he filed, the Committee was able to accept or resolve more than
half. By the time the reports were adopted on April lst, they reflected
over 300 changes made at the request of the Vice Chairman. The Vice
Chairman’s remaining amendments were requested changes that would have
gutted the reports’ conclusions, changed the factual underpinnings of
the investigation, and significantly delayed completion of the
long-overdue reports. When the Vice Chairman repeatedly refused my request
at the April lst meeting that he call up those remaining amendments he
wanted considered and voted on, the Committee, on a bipartisan basis,
voted 10-5 to approve and release the final installments of the Committee’s
investigation. _ Conmacrion Sunrvnrrian BY CHAIRMAN J orm D. ROCKEFELLER
IV _ An error appears on page 8 of the report on public statements. An
additional sentence should be included in the paragraph discussing the
views of the National Ground Intelligence Center, so that it reads:
"A later memo from State/INR said that ‘the IAEA and - pertinent
technical expert has concluded independently that the aluminum tubes are
not intended for Iraq’s nuclear program and are consistent with rocket
casings. . .’ The memo also stated that ‘l-Iigh-grade aluminum is used
for tactical rockets by a number of countries. Examples identified by DOE.
. .include the United States, Russia (905 x 80mm rockets), and apparently
Switzerland and Italy, whose 81rmn rocket design is assessed to have been
reverse- engineered for the Nasser MLR system’, with the note that ‘DOE
and DoD’s National Ground Intelligence Center (N GIC) concur on this
assessment, though NGIC does not share most of the other DOE views on
tactical rockets."’ (U) This correction was not made in the body of
the report due to an objection by the Vice Chairman. J orm D. ROCKEFELLER
IV _ 93
- ADDITIONAL Vnzws or Senator Dianne Feinstein
I applaud the completion of
the Committee’s Phase II investigations. Since the Committee’s first
report in July 2004, we have known that the prewar intelligence on Iraq
was both bad and wrong — it was the result of flawed tradecraft and
produced the inaccurate belief that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass
destruction. It has been four years since the Committee began the second
phase of its review. The results are now in. Even though the intelligence
before the war supported inaccurate statements, this Administration
distorted the intelligence in order to build its case to go to war. The
Executive Branch released only those findings that supported the argument,
did not relay uncertainties, and at times made statements beyond what the
intelligence supported. I am pleased that these reports have been
completed and released for the public’s review. We can now tum our full
attention to the present and the future, and making sure the mistakes of
the past are not repeated. DLANN12 FE1Nsr121N _ 94
page 94
- _ ADDITIONAL Vmws or Senator FEINGOLD The Administration, and
particularly President Bush and Vice President Cheney, made repeated
assertions about the threat posed by Saddam Hussein that were not
supported by the intelligence available at the time. Those assertions
overstated the nature and urgency of the threat, as described in the
intelligence, ignored ongoing disagreements and uncertainty within the
Intelligence Community, and, at times, outright contradicted intelligence
assessments. Together, the statements sought to make the case for a war in
Iraq by convincing the American people, first, that Saddam had, might
have, or was on the verge of obtaining a nuclear weapon, and, second, that
Saddam had a relationship with Al Qaeda and would provide Al Qaeda with
weapons of mass destruction for the purpose of attacking the United
States. Even the deeply flawed October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate
(NIE) did not support the claims made by the President and the Vice
President regarding an Iraqi nuclear program. That NIE assessed that Iraq
did not have a nuclear weapon or sufficient material to make one, and that
without sufficient fissile material acquired from abroad, Iraq probably
would not be able to make a weapon until 2007 or 2009. Yet the President
made the following statements: "[Saddarn] possesses the world’s
most dangerous weapons" (March 22, 2002); "[w]e don’t know
whether or not [Saddam] has a nuclear weapon" (December 31, 2002);
and, of course, "[i]acing clear evidence of peril, we carmot wait for
the final proof- the smoking gun — that could come in the forrn of a
mushroom cloud" (October 7, 2002). Meanwhile, Vice President Cheney
insisted that assessments related to Iraq’s nuclear program that were
disputed within the Intelligence Community were known "with absolute
certainty" (September 8, 2002) and through "irrefutable
evidence" (September 20, 2002). And, on the eve of war, after the
IAEA had reported that its inspectors had found "no evidence or
plausible indication of the revival of a nuclear weapons program in Iraq,
the Vice President asserted, "[w]e believe [Saddam] has, in fact,
reconstituted nuclear weapons" (March 16, 2003). Administration
ofl·icials’ claims of a relationship between Iraq and al Qaeda were
even more outlandish. Before the war, the Central Intelligence Agency
assessed that "Saddam has viewed Islamic extremists operating inside
Iraq as a threat," that "Saddam Hussein and Usama bin Laden are
far from being natural paitners," and that assessments about Iraqi
links to al Qaeda rested on "a body of fragmented, conflicting
reporting from sources of varying reliabi1ity." Moreover, the
Intelligence Commiuiity consistently assessed that Saddam’s use of
weapons of mass destruction against the United States rested on his being
"sufficiently desperate" in the face of a U.S. attack and his
possible desire for a "last chance at vengeance." Yet the
President not only repeatedly suggested an operational relationship
between Iraq and al Qaeda, but asserted that Saddam would provide weapons
of mass destruction to al Qaeda for an unprovoked attack against the
United States: "you can’t distinguish between al Qaeda and Saddam
when you talk about the war on terror" (September 25, 2002); "[e]ach
passing day could be the one on which the Iraqi regime gives anthrax or VX
— nerve gas — or some day a nuclear weapon to a terrorist ally"
(September 26, 2002); "[Saddarn] is a man who, in my judgment, would
like to use al Qaeda as a forward army" (October 14, 2002);
"[Saddam] is a threat because he is dealing with al Qaeda. .. [A]
true threat facing our country is that an al Qaeda-type network trained
and armed by Saddam could attack American and not leave one ’ringerprint"
(November 7, 2002); and "[t]he danger is clear: using chemical,
biological or, one day, nuclear weapons obtained with the help _ 95
page 95
- of Iraq, the terrorists could fulfill their stated ambitions and kill
thousands or hundreds of thousands of innocent people in our country or
any other" (March 17, 2002). Yet, as the Committee report has
concluded, "[s]tatements by the President and Vice President
indicating that Saddam Hussein was prepared to give weapons of mass
destruction to terrorist groups against the United States were
contradicted by available intelligence information." Further, "[s]tatements
and implications by the President and the Secretary of State suggesting
that Iraq and al Qaeda had a partnership, or that Iraq had provided al
Qaeda with weapons training, were not substantiated by the
intelligence." Even statements that Saddam harbored al Qaeda, such as
the President’s assertion that he "aids and protects terrorists,
including members of al Qaeda" (January 28, 2003) were not supported
by the intelligence available at the time. As the CIA acknowledged,
"we lack positive indications that Baghdad is complicit" in the
presence of operatives associated with al Qaeda in Iraq in 2002. These and
other assertions that were contradicted by the available intelligence,
including predictions of a smooth transition to a stable democracy, were
intended to drive the country into a war that has cost thousands of
American lives and hundreds of billions of dollars, visited untold misery
on the Iraqi people, and severely damaged our national security.
Administration officials used the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001
to justify a war that has not only been waged in a country that had no
connection to the attacks, but has seriously damaged our ability to fight
al Qaeda. In that respect, the President’s statement, on October 2,
2002, that "the Iraqi regime is a threat of unique urgency" was
perhaps most inaccurate of all. In October 2002, and still today, the
threat of unique urgency facing the United States does not come from Iraq,
but from the Afghanistan/Pakistan safe haven and global capabilities of al
Qaeda and its affiliates. Russsu. D. FEINGOLD 96
page 96
- _ ADDITIONAL Vmws or SENATORS HAGEL AND SNowE On February 12, 2004, the
Chairman and Vice Chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
issued a joint statement regarding the Committee’s Review of Pre-War
Intelligence in Iraq. Specifically, the Chairman and Vice Chairman
announced that the Committee had "unanimously agreed to refine the
terms of reference of the Committee’s ongoing inquiry into pre war
intelligence with regard to Iraq." The Chairman expressly stated that
the "resolution adopted unanimously today illustrates the commitment
of all members to a thorough review, to learning the necessary lessons
from our experience with Iraq, and to ensuring that our armed forces and
policymakers benefit from the best and most reliable intelligence that can
be collected. I believe that the report which we are currently reviewing
will have a profound impact on the future of our intelligence
Community." We concurred completely. We also believe that the process
by which the Committee drafted and approved the reports could have been
significantly improved. The Committee took more than four years to review
information of great import. The process was marked by partisan quarrels;
however, we believe that every member had sufficient time to review and
comment on the respective reports. In fact, of the 165 amendments filed to
these reports, over 50% were resolved or withdrawn. Unfortunately, members
never had an opportunity to vote up or down on the remaining amendments.
We endorse the reports as the final chapter of the Committee’s inquiry
into prewar intelligence with regard to Iraq. However, given the
opportunity to vote, we also would have likely supported some of the
amendments that had been filed, which would have improved the final
product. On balance, these reports contain critical information that
should unequivocally be publicly released, enabling the public to
formulate their own conclusions. These reports in no way preclude the
committee from undertaking additional inquiries ir1to the prewar
intelligence with regard to Iraq. These reports simply bring closure to
the Committee’s review. Intelligence Activities Relating to Iraq
Conducted by the Policy Counterterrorism Evaluation Group and the Office
of Special Plans within the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for
Policy The February l2, 2004 terms of reference of the Com1nittee’s
inquiry mandated that the Committee review "any intelligence
activities relating to Iraq conducted by the Policy Counterterrorism
Evaluation Group (PCTEG) and the Office of Special Plans within the Office
of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy," (OUSDP) as well as
"other issues we mutually identify in the course of the Committee’s
review." The Committee began its review of intelligence activities by
the offices reporting to the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in
2004, but the effort was suspended in September 2005, when the Committee
requested the Department of Defense Inspector General (`DoD IG) to review
whether the Office of Special Plans, which reported to the OUSDP, "at
any time, conducted unauthorized, unlawful or inappropriate intelligence
activities." _ 97
page 97
- The DoD IG reviewed whether personnel assigned to the PCTEG, OSP or
OUSDP had conducted unauthorized, unlawful or inappropriate intelligence
activities from September 2001 through June 2003, completing its report in
February 2007. The IG report concluded that "the Offrce of the Under
Secretary of Defense for Policy developed, produced, and then disseminated
alternative intelligence assessments on the Iraq and al-Qaeda relationship, which included some conclusions that were inconsistent with
the consensus of the Intelligence Community, to senior decision makers.
While such actions were not illegal or unauthorized, the actions were. .
.inappropriate. [. . .] This condition occurred because of an expanded
role and mission of the Ofiice of the Under Secretary of Defense for
Policy from policy formulation to altemative intelligence analysis and
dissemination. As a result, the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense
for Policy did not provide "the most accurate analysis of
intelligence" to senior decision makers." We endorse the DoD IG’s
iinding that the OUSDP personnel’s actions were inappropriate, and,
given the thorough work completed by the DoD IG on this issue, we do not
believe it would serve the public interest to go over the same ground
again. Based on the results of the DoD IG’s review, the Committee
decided to examine intelligence collection activities within the OUSDP,
which had not been included in the DoD IG report. Both reviews demonstrate
that intelligence activities undertaken by the United States Government
should rely on the professional Intelligence Community. We believe it is
important for the American public to be aware of the results of this
inquiry. Whether Public Statements regarding Iraq by U.S. Government
Officials Were Substantiated by Intelligence Information The Committee
unanimously agreed to evaluate "whether public statements and reports
and testimony regarding Iraq by U.S. Government officials made between the
Gulf War period and the commencement of Operation Iraqi Freedom were
substantiated by intelligence information." According to the
Committee report, the "Committee decided to concentrate its analysis
on the statements that were central to the nation’s decision to go to
war," and "specifically, the committee chose to review {ive
major policy speeches by key Administration officials regarding the
threats posed by Iraq, Iraqi weapons of mass destruction programs, Iraqi
ties to terrorist groups, and possible consequences of a US invasion of
Iraq." No amendments were iiled to either strike or revise this
language. The Committee report continued stating that the "speeches
are the best representations of how the Bush Administration communicated
intelligence analysis to the Congress, the American people, and the
international community" and that the speeches "are also fairly
comprehensive in scope, so evaluations about whether a particular
statement in a speech was substantiated can be extrapolated to cover
similar statements made at similar times." In order to conduct this
review "the Committee assembled hundreds of intelligence reports
produced prior to March 19, 2003 in an effort to understand the state of
intelligence analysis at the time of various speeches and
statements." _ 98
page 98
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