NewsFollowUp.com

search

econ charts

pictorial index

Page 1, 2, 3, 4

Go to weekly economic charts

Go to NFU Green Investing pages

Go to NFU pages on the Housing Bust 

Go to NFU recession indicator reports

• US stock market stays at high levels.  Bond prices rallied over the summer of 2007, as a meltdown in subprime mortgages led to a credit crisis, investors sought safe-haven government bonds.  With the August payrolls initially showing a drop in employment, the Fed cut interest rates by 1/2 point, leading shorter term bonds to rally on expectations of further cuts. 

Yield Curve Gold Eagle yield curve calculation "The calculation that I use is the yield on the 30 year Treasury bond (or 10 yr) divided by the yield on the short term 3 month Treasury bill  and Financial Sense  and Wikipedia 

Consumer Credit, Factors Affecting Reserve Balances, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Money Stock Measures, Commercial Paper, Country Exposure Lending Survey, Foreign Exchange Rates, Flow of Funds, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Data,  Household Debt ratios, Survey of Consumer Finances,  

• Yield Curve  see FXwords
• Commercial Paper statistics, explanations 

more on bonds and inflation

• Bonds, Overview, can be thought of as a loan, citizens are the lenders, the borrowers are usually a government, local municipality or big company.  They use the money for roads, finance factories, fund the federal deficit...etc.  You purchase a bond at 'face value', the pay back date is the 'maturity date' at a predetermined interest rate or 'coupon'.  They're known as 'fixed income' investments, they assure a steady income ... less volatile than stocks.  Often it is said: When yield goes up, price goes down ... bonds can be held to maturity or bought and sold on the open market.  The price fluctuates but you will get the same payout (coupon).  Yield: a figure that captures the the change in price (value) of the bond.  Its the percentage return of the bond at any given price.  Formula: Yield = Coupon / Price ... the yield is simply the coupon (% rate) ... when the price of the bond fluctuates, the yield grows or shrinks to compensate in either direction.  ex:  $1000 bond with $60 coupon, yield =6% ... but current yield = $60 / $800 = 7.5% if price drops ... All this is complicated by how coupons are reinvested and the compounding effects.  

• Bond trading ... If you're a bond buyer, you want high yields and then higher prices once you own it.   You would like to pay $800 for a $1000 bond and price rises are a good thing.  For individuals, short term bonds are the 'safest' and not 'callable' or paid back early.  Rising Inflation is the biggest threat to buy-and-hold bond investors.   Inflation usually accompanies strong economic growth and is a bad sign for bonds.  Rising prices make today's dollars worth less in the future and are particularly corrosive to a 30 year bond.  The threat of inflation raises bond prices and yields fall.  Inflation erodes the value of bonds.  Lower growth, which normally eases inflationary pressure, is often seen as positive for bond prices, pressuring yields lower.   See above July, Aug, Sept 2007